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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED OVER THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE SWITCHING WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW TO WNW
BRINGING COOLER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DECREASING WET BULB ZEROS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HAVE
BROUGHT SNOW DOWN TO 8000-8500 FT. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVERNIGHT OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WHERE
YOU HAVE DECENT QG VV AND UPSLOPE. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL END AT MIDNIGHT WHEN THE SNOW TAPERS OFF. 

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SECONDARY SURGE OF
COOLER AIR FROM A DISORGANIZED FRONT THAT WILL DROP DOWN INTO
COLORADO LATER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWERS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS DECENT LIFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LAPSE RATES OVER DENVER OF 8.6 C/KM BUT DUE TO LACK OF
MUCH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY LITTLE CAPE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS WITH WIND SPEEDS GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH OVER THE PLAINS AND
40 MPH OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ABOVE TIMBERLINE. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ON THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND VALLEYS THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING
BY MORNING WITH SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

INITIALLY...A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW A
STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT MARCHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF
THE STATE FROM 00Z THROUGH 12Z...BUT BOTH MODELS ALSO LIMIT ANY
AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN
NEBRASKA. QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC DIAGNOSTICS SHOW ONLY A FEW HOURS OF
RISING VERTICAL MOTIONS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL MENTION ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING...IN CASE A
LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS IN WYOMING. THE COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE
STATE WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MORNING LOWS ON FRIDAY COULD BE NEARING THE FREEZING MARK. AT
THIS TIME...ONLY THE PALMER DIVIDE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER
THAN 32. AFTER FRIDAY MORNING...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE
BUILDING OVER COLORADO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
GRADUALLY WARMING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
DRY AND MILD WILL BE THE PRIMARY MESSAGE. 

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
600 PM MDT WED OCT 01 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  MOCLDY    58  37  45 N6        29.91R                  
A. F. ACADEMY  MOCLDY    57  36  45 NW3       29.91S                  
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         CLOUDY    55  34  45 NW8       29.94R                  
FORT CARSON    CLOUDY    61  38  43 NE6       29.89R                  
LIMON          CLOUDY    44  41  89 N31G45    29.91R                  
MONUMENT HILL  LGT RAIN  41  41 100 N14       29.97R VSB 1/4          
TRINIDAD       PTCLDY    70  32  24 W8        29.84R                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 600pm MDT, Wednesday October 01, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 51 degrees west, near 46 degrees central, and near 74 degrees east. Current sky conditions are partly sunny west, mostly cloudy central, and mostly cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 45 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 86%, and the dew point is near 42 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 30%, and the dew point is near 41 degrees. Winds are from the south at 10 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the north at 18 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the east at 7 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 75 degrees at LA JUNTA. The lowest temperature is 30 degrees at WOLF CREEK PAS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
636 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CONTINENTAL 
DIVIDE THIS MORNING  AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND 
PALMER DIVIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST 
ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING.

SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO NEAR 7000 FEET BY THIS EVENING. 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
PIKES PEAK ABOVE 10000 FEET. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AREAS ABOVE 7000 FEET.

NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY 
TONIGHT WITH FROST POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  POCKETS 
OF FROST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY TONIGHT 
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A HARD  KILLING FREEZE  WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS  INCLUDING THE SAN LUIS VALLEY  THURSDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING  IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT  ESPECIALLY OVER THE IMMEDIATE PIKES PEAK
REGION  INCLUDING MUCH OF EL PASO COUNTY. THIS AREA COULD SEE
LOWS DIP TO NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY MORNING  WHILE MOST OF THE REST
OF THE PLAINS SEES LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

FREEZING OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ABOVE 7000 FEET.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
307 PM MDT WED OCT 1 2014
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS
SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS 28 TO 36. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 46 TO 56. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 28 TO 34. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS 50 TO 59. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 33 TO 39. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 55 TO 66. LOWS 35 TO 41.
MONDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 60 TO 69.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 37 TO 44. HIGHS 61 TO 70.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 38 TO 45. HIGHS 59 TO 69.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                    OCT 7-11     OCT 9-15   OCT        OCT-DEC                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above       Normal     Normal     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Below       Normal     Normal      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
---------------------------
OCTOBER 1ST
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1752...
The second severe hurricane in two weeks hit the Carolinas. The Onslow
County Courthouse was destroyed along with all its records, and Beacon
Island disappeared. (David Ludlum)
...1893...
The second great hurricane of the 1893 season hit the Mississippi Delta
Region drowning more than 1000 persons. (David Ludlum)
...1977...
Thunderstorms brought heavy rains and severe weather to eastern Kentucky. A pair 
of tornados struck Owsley and Laurel counties...causing hundreds of thousands of 
dollars in crop and property damage to Owsley county alone...while the tornado 
which struck in Laurel county left 16 people injured. In addition to the severe 
weather...as much as 8 inches of rain fell over parts of eastern Kentucky...with 
a record setting one day rainfall total for October 1st of 4.78 inches falling 
at the London-Corbin airport.

The October rains were the second round of such adverse weather in 1977. Earlier 
in the year major flooding occurred throughout parts of eastern Kentucky when 
over 15 inches of rain fell over a 3 day period in April. These floods were the 
impetus for the NWS to locate an office in eastern Kentucky. Breathitt county 
was selected as a central location and the decision was made to locate the radar 
and the NWS office at Jackson. Construction began in late 1979 and the office 
was officially opened on January 1st 1981. (NWS Jackson)
...1987...
A blast of cold arctic air hit the north central U.S. An afternoon
thunderstorm slickened the streets of Duluth MN with hail and snow, and
later in the afternoon, strong northerly winds reached 70 mph. Unseasonably
warm weather continued in the Pacific northwest. Afternoon highs of 90
degrees at Olympia WA, 92 degrees at Portland OR, and 89 degrees at Seattle
WA, were records for the month of October. For Seattle WA it marked the
twenty- first daily record high for the year, a record total in itself.
(The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather across central
Oklahoma and the eastern half of Texas. Thunderstorms in Texas produced
softball size hail northwest of Nocona, and baseball size hail at Troy and
Park Springs. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1989...
Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the southeastern U.S. through the
daytime and evening hours. Severe thunderstorms spawned eleven tornadoes,
with seven of those tornadoes in Georgia. A tornado southwest of Moultrie
GA killed two persons and injured a dozen others. Tornadoes also injured
one person north of Graceville FL, and two persons at Bartow GA. (Storm
Data) (The National Weather Summary)
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