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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
325 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level low over northern Arizona will slowly move east
through the next 24 hours and be over northwest New Mexico 12z
Monday morning. A wave ahead of the low is producing mid and high
clouds over eastern Colorado. Some of the models show a few
showers and storms associated with this system this morning. Will
have low pops in the forecast for southern parts of the Front
Range.

Should see some clearing behind this wave late this morning and
early afternoon. Expect temperatures to be a few degrees warmer
today with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s over northeast
Colorado. Precipitable water values will increase today with
values around a half inch over the mountains to an inch over the
eastern plains. CAPE will also increase today with values
climbing to 800 J/kg. The best instability will be found over the
eastern plains and higher terrain. Will have to the highest pops,
30-40 percent here. Main threats with the storms will be brief
heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph.

Expect most of the convection to end by mid to late evening as the
airmass stabilizes. However, could see a few weak showers and
storms linger past midnight as the upper level low moves closer.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Monday into Tuesday a broad upper level ridge of high pressure
will stretch across the central and southern u.s. A weak
south/southwesterly flow aloft will be over CO. Subtropical
moisture will continue to sit across eastern CO...and sufficient
enough to produce a round of aftn/evng tstms both days...some of
those storms may linger overnight along the CO/KS borders.
Wednesday into Thursday...the ridge axis shifts a bit more to the
east which will allow the plume of subtropical moisture to shift
eastward as well. Still the potential for aftn/evng tstms but
coverage will be lower and temperatures will warm up as well. The
flow aloft will remain weak into next weekend with a persistent
southwesterly flow aloft. Subtropical moisture will still be
around but GFS/ECMWF suggests the overall coverage will more
isolated by late in the week and into the weekend.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
500 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  MOCLDY    58  47  66 W3        30.23R                  
A. F. ACADEMY  CLOUDY    56  48  75 CALM      30.23R                  
SCHRIEVER AFB  NOT AVBL                                               
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         LGT RAIN  56  50  81 CALM      30.27R                  
FORT CARSON    CLOUDY    59  51  72 W3        30.19R                  
LIMON          FAIR      50  49  96 E3        30.19R                  
MONUMENT HILL  MOCLDY    55  45  67 SW5       30.27R                  
TRINIDAD       FAIR      59  49  69 W5        30.20R                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 500am MDT, Sunday August 28, 2016
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 61 degrees west, near 62 degrees central, and near 62 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, mostly cloudy central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 62%, and the dew point is near 48 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 49%, and the dew point is near 43 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 80%, and the dew point is near 56 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the southeast at 5 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 69 degrees at LA JUNTA. The lowest temperature is 36 degrees at WOLF CREEK PAS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1148 PM MDT SAT AUG 27 2016

 DAY ONE  TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS, BUT WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH. SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. ANY HEAVY RAIN THAT FALLS
ON A BURN SCAR WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.


7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
317 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016
TODAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 62 TO 74. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 44 TO 52. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
MONDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 59 TO 69. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS 43 TO 51. LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 60 TO 70. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 44 TO 56. HIGHS 63 TO 76.
SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 66 TO 76.

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                 SEP 2-SEP 6 SEP 4-SEP 10    SEP       SEP-NOV                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Below        Below     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
//////////////////////////////
AUGUST 28TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1898...
Torrents of rain accompanied by a furious wind upset the rain gage at Fort
Mohave AZ. However, water in a wash tub set out on the mesa, clear of
everything, measured eight inches after the 45 minute storm. (The Weather
Channel)
...1911...
Saint George GA was deluged with 18.00 inches of rain in 24 hours to
establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)
...1936...
Record heat in Kentucky included 100 degrees at Louisville and 
Lexington, and 106 at Bowling Green. (NWS Louisville)
...1959...
Lieutenant Colonel William Rankin bailed out of his plane at a height of
46,000 feet into a violent thunderstorm, and lived to write about the 45
minute journey (which normally would have been a thirteen minute descent).
He described it as one of the most bizarre and painful experiences
imaginable. (The Weather Channel)
...1971...
Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Doria caused devastating floods in central
and northeast New Jersey resulting in 138 million dollars damage. In
southeastern Pennsylvania, high winds downed trees and power lines, and in
New York City, heavy rains flooded streets and subways. (David Ludlum)
...1986...
The temperature at Apalachicola FL dipped to 62 degrees to shatter their
previous August record by four degrees, having tied their August record
high of 99 degrees on the 2nd of the month. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Severe thunderstorms broke the heat in the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf
Coast Region, but not before seven cities reported record high temperatures
for the date. The severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph
downing large trees around Horse Shoe NC, and pelted southeastern Meridian
MS with hail two inches in diameter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)
...1988...
Tropical Storm Chris spawned a tornado near Manning SC which killed one
person, and spawned three tornadoes in North Carolina. Chris produced one
to two foot tides, and three to six inch rains, over coastal South
Carolina. Severe thunderstorms in New York State and Vermont, developing
ahead of a cold front, spawned a tornado which killed one person at Hector
NY, produced tennis ball size hail at Brandon VT, and produced wind gusts
to 80 mph at Lyndonville VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1989...
Early morning thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 4.50 inches of rain around
McCook, and 4.65 inches near Auburn and Brownville. Showers in Montana
pushed the rainfall total for the month at Havre past the previous August
record of 3.90 inches. (The National Weather Summary)
...1990...
Plainfield, IL, which is just south of Chicago, was struck by an F5 tornado 
destroying several businesses and Plainfield High School. An apartment 
complex in Crest Hill was hit and eight residents were killed. While the 
extent of F5 damage was not widespread, many residents were affected by this 
fast-moving tornado. There was a total of 21 fatalities from this storm.
(NWS Louisville)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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