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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
348 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH ALONG THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. WINDS WEAKER IN DENVER AREA WITH
PRESENCE OF AN ANTICYCLONE....WITH DIRECTION MAINLY SOUTHEAST.
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. RIDGE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL
DECREASE...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN SURFACE WINDS. SATELLITE
SHOWING NEXT BATCH OF MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER UTAH...WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK SHOULD SEE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. LATEST CIRRA SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE WAVE CLOUD ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR TOWARDS MORNING. DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS
A BIT. ON FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO HELP LOWER HUMIDITY READINGS ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO LINCOLN COUNTY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER A BIT BUT RECENT PRECIPITATION
AIDING IN CONTINUED GREENUP. SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY ONLY AREA AT
THIS TIME WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD GET CRITICAL...BUT
LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. 

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
DEEPENING SURFACE LEESIDE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN MOVES TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
EVENING. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. DRY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL...INCREASING FIRE DANGER TO
POSSIBLE CRITICAL LEVELS. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED FOR LINCOLN COUNTY AND EASTERN ELBERT COUNTY. THIS WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WASHINGTON COUNTY.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND THE
MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVING SNOW
LEVELS NEAR 10000 FT. MODERATE QG LIFT AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL
THEN MOVE OVERHEAD TO INCREASE SHOWERS IN COVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL...MAINLY NORTH OF I76.
MODELS SHOWING CAPE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...BUT LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. THE RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND THE NAM AND ECMWF HAS NOW COME MORE IN
LINE WITH THE GFS. THIS SOLUTION WILL TAKE THE FOUR CORNERS LOW
AROUND 00Z EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO
ABOUT 6-7 THOUSAND FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY RECEIVE GOOD SNOW STARTING SATURDAY EVENING AND IN THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH.
WITH THE INITIAL WARM TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED MELTING BEFORE THE
MAIN FRONT...OVERALL SEE ONLY ADVISORY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (6-12
INCHES IN 24 HOURS) FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. NO WINTER STORM WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR NOW DUE TO LOWER THAN WARNING CRITERIA
AMOUNTS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON DEVELOPING STORM AND
POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM CONVECTION. 

AS FOR THE PLAINS...DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND POTENTIAL
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP MOST OF THE PLAINS DRY UNTIL
LATE EVENING WHEN THE 700 MB LOW MOVES EAST ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 40
MB/HR OF UPWARD MOTION. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY
PROGGED WITH TEND TO DOWNSLOPE US OUT...ITS HARD TO IGNORE THE QG
PARAMETERS. WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHANCES AND LIKELYS ACROSS THE
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ALMOST ALL RAIN EXPECTED...EXCEPT SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE
INGREDIENTS WILL BE OVER OUR AREA FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS - FURTHER
EAST INTO KANSAS. HOWEVER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE A
POTENTIAL TIME FRAME FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER. THIS IS SHOWN BY WRAPAROUND MOISTURE...A THETA E RIDGE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD ELEVATED INSTABILITY. 

THE ALMOST STACKED LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...DECREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. STRONG WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DIPPING TOO LOW SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
A FEW LOCATIONS MAYBE SEEING FREEZING OVER THE PLAINS. 

MODELS NOW EXTENDING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW UNTIL WEDNESDAY NOW. THIS WILL BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA. 

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
300 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  MOSUNNY   62  14  15 S21G30    29.94F                  
A. F. ACADEMY  SUNNY     59  18  19 S13G23    29.94S                  
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         SUNNY     59  17  19 S14       29.98S                  
FORT CARSON    SUNNY     63  18  17 SE18G25   29.91F                  
LIMON          SUNNY     58  14  17 VRB6      29.94F                  
MONUMENT HILL  MOSUNNY   57  27  30 S13       29.95F                  
TRINIDAD       PTSUNNY   65  22  19 CALM      29.95F                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 300pm MDT, Thursday April 24, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 60 degrees west, near 60 degrees central, and near 66 degrees east. Current sky conditions are sunny west, mostly sunny central, and sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 17%, and the dew point is near 15 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 24%, and the dew point is near 23 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 14%, and the dew point is near 16 degrees. Winds are variable at 3 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 10 mph with gusts at 16 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the west at 8 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 66 degrees at PUEBLO and LAMAR. The lowest temperature is 32 degrees at WOLF CREEK PAS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1103 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

 DAY ONE  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AND
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE CREATING THE DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS.

AS THE STORM APPROACHES  SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHTNING BEING THE
MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION  SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER
PEAKS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
SPREAD HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EXTREME CAUTION IS ADVISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR
BURNING ACTIVITIES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY FALL TO AROUND 8000
FEET. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IN
ADDITION  STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
303 PM MDT THU APR 24 2014
TONIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 30 TO 36. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 52 TO 67. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 36 TO 44. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 51 TO 64. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 26 TO 34. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
WINDY. CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 35 TO 49.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 32.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS 35 TO 48.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 21 TO 30. HIGHS 34 TO 48.
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 31.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 35 TO 49.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 30.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 37 TO 50.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                APR 30-MAY 4  MAY 2-MAY 8   MAY        MAY-JUL                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Below       Normal     Normal      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
APRIL 24TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1899...
Two women and one son lived to tell the story of being picked up by a
tornado and carried more than a fourth of a mile, flying far above the
church steeples, before being gently set down again. The young boy and one
of the ladies said they had the pleasure of flying alongside a horse. The
horse "kicked and struggled" as it flew high above, and was set down
unharmed about a mile away. (The Weather Channel)
...1908...
Severe thunderstorms spawned eighteen tornadoes over across the Central
Gulf Coast States claiming the lives of 310 persons. The state of
Mississippi was hardest hit. A tornado near Hattiesburg MS killed 143
persons and caused more than half a million dollars damage. Four violent
tornadoes accounted for 279 of the 310 deaths. The deadliest of the four
tornadoes swelled to a width of 2.5 miles as it passed near Amite LA. The
tornado also leveled most of Purvis MS. (David Ludlum) (The Weather
Channel)
...1925...
Louisville's and Bowling Green's warmest April temperature: 91 and 96 
degrees, respectively. Also, Lexington's earliest 90 degree temperature (90 
degrees). (NWS Louisville)
...1980...
Three of eight helicopters were damaged in a sandstorm during a 
failed-attempt to rescue 52 American hostages held in Iran. The hostages 
were later released on January 20, 1981.
...2005...
The latest measurable snowfall on record occurred across parts of Kentucky 
last year. The snow was the result of cold air and moisture wrapping around 
an area of low pressure located over the northeast United States. 
Accumulating snow was mainly confined to the ridgetops and higher 
elevations of extreme east Kentucky but at least a few flakes were reported 
just about everywhere. Some amounts reported from across eastern and 
central Kentucky  include...0.6 inches in Booneville...1.0 inch at 
Jeremiah...1.2 inches at the Jackson Weather Office...1.5 inches at 
Cumberland...4.0 inches at Lynch...and 5.0 inches at Closplint. (NWS Jackson)
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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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