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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. INITIALLY...JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF
THE TROF. LIKE YESTERDAY AM...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KREMMLING SO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN ZONE 32. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROF WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A BIT
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE RATHER
SHALLOW AND WEAK QG FORCING...EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.

EXPECT INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SLOPES. 
 
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO BY WED AFTN AND
THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM RATHER LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
MTNS WILL BE LIGHT. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RATHER STG
SFC GRADIENT IN PLACE THRU MID AFTN AS A PACIFIC TYPE FNT MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL HOWEVER
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.

FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU A WK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 
AREA.  CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MINOR UPSLOPE IN AND NR THE 
FOOTHILLS WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE BY 12Z THU.  THUS IT 
WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU MORNING.  OTHERWISE 
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN 
THE MTNS.  AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS 
OVER NERN CO.  

ON FRI A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US WITH SW FLOW 
ALOFT.  MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY 
WITH A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.  OVER NERN 
CO IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER THE PALMER 
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN.  AS FOR HIGH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER 
THE PLAINS.

FOR SAT THRU SAT NIGHT THE GFS TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OVER THE 
SWRN US AND MOVES IT ENE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHILE TRYING TO MERGE 
IT WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  AS A 
RESULT IT HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 
SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT. IN ADDITION A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO 
NERN CO WITH AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE AFTN INTO SAT 
EVENING.  THIS LEADS TO A GOOD CHC OF SNOW FM SAT INTO SAT EVENING 
ACROSS THE AREA.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
FURTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT MERGE IT WITH THE WEAKER SECONDARY SYSTEM 
IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES EVEN THE 
ECMWF SHOWS SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH 
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE.  FURTHERMORE IT ALSO HAS SURGE OF COOLER 
AIR AS WELL BY AFTN INTO SAT EVENING SO EVEN THIS SCENARIO WOULD 
LEAD TO A CHC OF SOME LIGHT PCPN.  THUS WILL MENTION A CHC OF SNOW 
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH COOLER TEMPS.

BY SUN APPEARS DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA 
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS.  850-700 MB TEMPS ARE A 
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER 
NERN CO.  FOR MON MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WITH A 
CHC OF SNOW.  OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO DVLP WHICH 
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
900 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  MOSUNNY   56  25  30 N6        30.23F                  
A. F. ACADEMY  SUNNY     47  23  39 N5        30.23F                  
ELLICOTT       SUNNY    N/A N/A N/A CALM      30.22S                  
FALCON         SUNNY     56  20  25 NW3       30.27S                  
FORT CARSON    SUNNY     50  21  32 NW10      30.20F                  
LIMON          SUNNY     52  26  36 VRB5      30.18S                  
MONUMENT HILL  SUNNY     50  19  29 SW8       30.25F                  
TRINIDAD       MOSUNNY   49  24  37 W13       30.24F                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 900am MST, Tuesday January 27, 2015
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 34 degrees west, near 53 degrees central, and near 44 degrees east. Current sky conditions are mostly sunny west, mostly sunny central, and sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 29%, and the dew point is near 22 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 60%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. Winds are from the southeast at 5 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The wind chill is near 30 degrees west. Winds are from the southwest at 17 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the west at 9 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 57 degrees at SPRINGFIELD. The lowest temperature is -2 degrees at GUNNISON.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
621 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN 
MAY TRICKLE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE 
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  HOWEVER  ANY 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY  BRINGING A CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM TAKING A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
951 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
REST OF TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 48 TO 60. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
TONIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 27 TO 36. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 38 TO 50. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 21 TO 29. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS 32 TO 39. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 21 TO 28.
FRIDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS 33 TO 42.
FRIDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 19 TO 28.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 24 TO 33.
SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 11 TO 20.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 28 TO 35.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 16 TO 23. HIGHS 35 TO 43.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                 FEB 1-FEB 5  FEB 3-FEB 9   FEB        FEB-APR                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above      Below                      
 Precipitation:      Below        Below      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
JANUARY 27TH
HISTORICAL WEATHER FACTS
...1772...
The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington
reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded
about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
...1937...
Record crests on the Ohio River were attained at Clifty Creek (475.9 feet), 
McAlpine Upper (52.15 feet), McAlpine Lock (85.44 feet), and Cannelton Lock 
(60.8 feet). A record crest was reached on the Green River as well, with a 
stage of 41.6 feet at Rochester. (NWS Louisville)
...1966...
Oswego NY was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the
town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)
...1967...
Residents of Chicago IL began to dig out from a storm which produced 23
inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for
days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum)
...2006...
Most of western and central Kentucky has experienced 30 consecutive days 
with above normal temperatures. (NWS Paducah)
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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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