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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STABLE LAYER CURRENTLY HELPING TO KEEP STORMS AT BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 IS STILL POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH MAIN THREATS BEING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER FOOTHILLS AND EAST INTO DENVER DUE
TO MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE CAP DISSIPATING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SHRA
DEVELOPING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED WITH SOME BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S FOR THE PLAINS AND
40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO UTAH. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO AZ AND
CO. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE PLAINS CLOSEST TO
THE FOOTHILLS. THERE IS LESS OF A CAP TOMORROW WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE TRANSITIONING OUT AS WELL AS INCREASED MOISTURE. THIS
WILL HELP TO EXTEND THE COVERAGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S OVER THE PLAINS AND 60S TO 70S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN CO. THE MDLS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THIS AREA. MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS OF CO...WITH JUST ISOLD POPS IN AND NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS AND PALMER DIVIDE. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AS IT SLOWLY MAKES ITS
WAY EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL MONDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH THE
RIDGE REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A DRIER 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER COLORADO. THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN A BIT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES
ACROSS WYOMING ON THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM SO
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW. A BROAD BUT FLAT
UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE...BUT
OVERALL POPS WILL BE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE WEEKEND AS
THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS TO
THE EAST OF CO. 
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
600 PM MDT SAT AUG 01 2015
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  PTSUNNY   77  52  41 SE9       30.17S THUNDER          
A. F. ACADEMY  PTSUNNY   78  45  31 SE10      30.18R                  
ELLICOTT       TSTM     N/A N/A N/A MISG      30.17S                  
FALCON         PTSUNNY   73  51  45 SE6       30.23R                  
FORT CARSON    PTSUNNY   73  52  46 S21       30.17R                  
LIMON          PTSUNNY   83  53  35 SE14      30.09S                  
MONUMENT HILL  NOT AVBL                                               
TRINIDAD       CLOUDY    72  51  47 W26G37    30.18S                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 500pm MDT, Saturday August 01, 2015
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 87 degrees west, near 95 degrees central, and near 92 degrees east. Current sky conditions are cloudy west, partly sunny central, and sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 27%, and the dew point is near 50 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 11%, and the dew point is near 33 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 31%, and the dew point is near 58 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and danger east. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the north at 9 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the east at 8 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 95 degrees at GREELEY ARPT and DENVER INTL AP. The lowest temperature is 48 degrees at LA VETA PASS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1029 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

 DAY ONE  TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS  ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ISOLATED
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN LAS ANIMAS
AND BACA COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING  WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY  MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY
STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING  FLASH FLOODING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 40 MPH.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY  A COUPLE OF PASSING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING  FLASH
FLOODING  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY  DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
WHICH WILL RESULT IN FEWER STORMS  CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
MOUNTAINS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THE REST OF TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
237 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 50 TO 57. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 65 TO 77. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 50 TO 56. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 65 TO 75. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 48 TO 55. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 66 TO 78. LOWS 49 TO 55.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 69 TO 80.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 50 TO 56.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 66 TO 80. LOWS 49 TO 56.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 64 TO 73.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                    AUG 7-11     AUG 9-15   AUG        AUG-OCT                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below       Normal      Below      Below                      
 Precipitation:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
/////////////////////////
AUGUST 1ST...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1897...
Bowling Green's warmest low temperature on record: 81 degrees. (NWS Louisville)
...1898...
The period covered by an official weather forecast was increased from 36 
hours to 48 hours. (NWS Louisville)
...1900...
The temperature at Louisville climbed to at least 90 degrees, which it 
would do again for a total of 21 days in a row, a record (which would 
be tied the very next year). (NWS Louisville)
...1954...
Mount Rainier in Washington State was still covered with sixteen inches of
snow at the 5500 foot level following a big snow season. (David Ludlum)
...1985...
A nearly stationary thunderstorm deluged Cheyenne WY with rain and hail.
Six inches of rain fell in six hours producing the most damaging flash
flood of record for the state. Two to five feet of hail covered the ground
following the storm, which claimed twelve lives, and caused 65 million
dollars property damage. (Storm Data)
...1986...
A powerful thunderstorm produced 100 mph winds and large hail in eastern
Kansas and southwestern Missouri causing 71 million dollars damage, and
injuring nineteen persons. It was one of the worst thunderstorms of record
for Kansas. Crops were mowed to the ground in places and roofs blown off
buildings along its path, 150 miles long and 30 miles wide, from near
Abilene to southeast of Pittsburg. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Record heat gripped parts of the Midwest. A dozen cities reported record
high temperatures for the date, including Lincoln NE with a reading of 105
degrees, Moline IL with an afternoon high of 103 degrees, and Burlington IA
with a reading of 102 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Two dozen cities in the Upper Midwest reported record high temperatures for
the date, including La Crosse WI with a reading of 105 degrees. Highs of
103 degrees at Milwaukee WI and South Bend IND were records for the month
of August. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Hurricane Chantal made landfall along the Upper Texas coast about sunrise.
Chantal deluged parts of Galveston Island and southeastern Texas with 8 to
12 inches of rain. Unofficial totals ranged up to twenty inches. Winds
gusted to 82 mph at Galveston, and reached 76 mph in the Houston area.
Tides were 5 to 7 feet high. The hurricane claimed two lives, and caused
100 million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
 
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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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