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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
434 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 425 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

DECENT QUASIGEOSTROPHIC SUBSIDENCE PRESENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES...CHANGING SIGN IN ALL
BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS SUBSIDENCE AND MODEST
DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON PRECIPITABLE WATER EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS AS GPS SENSORS ARE MEASURING ROUGHLY A THIRD OF AN
INCH LESS WATER THAN WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY AT THIS HOUR. DESPITE
THIS CURRENT DRYING TREND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD UPSTREAM FROM US IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH SUPPORTS THE
MODEL FORECASTS OF INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND INSTABILITY 
NUMBERS AND GENERATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER MOST
AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WITH FORECAST CAPE
VALUES REMAINING RATHER TAME EXPECT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY BENIGN ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN ALL
AREAS SHOULD BE WARMER TODAY. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR FOR THE
MOST PART OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CIRA-GENERATED SYNTHETIC SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA TOWARDS 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW A LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN/
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH ITS AXIS PASSING OVER IDAHO AND NEVADA
LATE ON SATURDAY. THIS PLACES COLORADO UNDER A WARM...RELATIVELY
DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS...AND INTO THE VERY MILD 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY. EVEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUING TO FALL...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND WET SOILS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
DRIFTING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY EVENING...WITH MOST OF IT ONLY
PRODUCING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LIGHT RAINFALL BASED ON THE
INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS. STORMS SHOULD LET UP BY
MID-EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE CWA
WHERE MODELS SHOW A RIBBON OF HIGH DEWPOINTS BEING MOVED ALONG BY
GUSTY SLY WINDS ALONG A STALLED OUT SFC TROUGH. THEREFORE MAY SEE
A STRAY STORM OR TWO LINGER BEYOND MIDNIGHT OUT THAT WAY. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS PROGGED TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS
COLORADO DURING THE DAY WITH QG VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASING
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. QG VV VALUES APPEAR SOMEWHAT STRONGER
ON THE SLOWER NAM COMPARED TO THE GFS. AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT AND
TROUGH AXIS PASS...MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE PRECIP BREAKING OUT...
FIRST IN THE HIGH COUNTRY AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING. CONVECTION
APPEARS MORE DEVELOPED AND WIDESPREAD ON THE NAM...ESPLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD AND WITH PRESSURE FALLS ON THE
PLAINS...MODELS SHOW GUSTY W-NWLY WINDS DVLPG OVER AND ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS LIKELY TO SAP MUCH OF THE
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE MTNS
AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS. WHEREAS
THE NAM SHOWS A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION/STORMS TIED TO
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY MOVING OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...BASED ON THE FACT ALL
FOUR MODELS SHOW A GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW DVLPG EAST OF THE
MTNS...AM LEANING TOWARDS THE DRIER MODEL SOLUTIONS. AND WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION KICKING IN...COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NOT
LONG AFTER MIDDAY. STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT AND/OR DISSIPATE BY
EVENING.

THE PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STARTS OUT WITH A BROAD UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS AND A DRY ZONAL FLOW 
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES START OUT NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
MONDAY WITH RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE WEST COAST. AS THE RIDGE
MIGRATES INLAND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE AND THE CHANCE OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AND
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE START OF ANOTHER CYCLE OF MONSOON
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKY MTN REGION AS MODELS
SHOW A TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
TRACKING ACROSS THE NRN HIGHLANDS OF MEXICO. HOWEVER THE EFFECTS
OF THIS NEW SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY NOT BE FELT AROUND
HERE UNTIL FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK AT THE EARLIEST.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
600 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  CLEAR     56  40  55 NW10      30.16R                  
A. F. ACADEMY  CLEAR     45  39  81 NE6       30.18R                  
ELLICOTT       CLEAR     49  41  74 CALM      30.14R                  
FALCON         CLEAR     53  37  56 NW8       30.20R                  
FORT CARSON    CLEAR     51  41  70 NW8       30.13S                  
LIMON          CLEAR     50  45  83 NW6       30.10R                  
MONUMENT HILL  CLEAR     46  37  71 W9        30.20R                  
TRINIDAD       CLEAR     53  41  63 W18       30.14S                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 500am MDT, Friday August 29, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 59 degrees west, near 55 degrees central, and near 56 degrees east. Current sky conditions are cloudy west, clear central, and partly cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 75%, and the dew point is near 51 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 68%, and the dew point is near 45 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the southeast at 9 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 12 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 6 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 63 degrees at BROOMFIELD. The lowest temperature is 36 degrees at MONARCH PASS and LEADVILLE.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
747 PM MDT THU AUG 28 2014

 DAY ONE  TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FOR SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY  AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREATS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
401 AM MDT FRI AUG 29 2014
TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 59 TO 74. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 44 TO 52. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 65 TO 77. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 46 TO 54. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 65 TO 77. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 44 TO 53. HIGHS 65 TO 75.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 64 TO 75.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 46 TO 56. HIGHS 65 TO 77.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                 SEP 3-SEP 7 SEP 5-SEP 11   SEP        SEP-NOV                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above       Normal     Normal      Below                      
 Precipitation:      Below        Above      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
//////////////////////////////
AUGUST 29TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1962...
Hackberry LA was deluged with twenty-two inches of rain in 24 hours,
establishing a state record. (The Weather Channel)
...1965...
A national record for the month of August was established when 2.5 inches
of snow fell atop Mount Washington NH. Temperatures in New England dipped
to 39 degrees at Nantucket MA, and to 25 degrees in Vermont. For many
location it was the earliest freeze of record. (David Ludlum)
...1987...
Some of the most powerful thunderstorms in several years developed over the
piedmont of North Carolina, and marched across central sections of the
state during the late afternoon and evening hours. Baseball size hail was
reported around Albemarle, while thunderstorm winds downed giant trees
around High Falls. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Cool air invaded the north central U.S. Ten cities reported record low
temperatures for the date, including Bismarck ND with a reading of 33
degrees. Deerfield, a small town in the Black Hills of South Dakota,
reported a low of 23 degrees. The remnants of Tropical Storm Chris drenched
eastern Pennsylvania with up to five and a half inches of rain, and
produced high winds which gusted to 90 mph, severely damaging a hundred
boats in Anne Arundel County MD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)
...1989...
Evening thunderstorms produced destructive lightning in West Virginia. The
lightning caused widepsread damage, particularily in Doddridge County.
Numerous trees were downed closing many roads. Fire companies had a
difficult time tending to the many homes and trailers on fire. Anchorage AK
reported a record 9.60 inches of rain for the month of August. The average
annual precipitation for Anchorage is just slighty more than fifteen
inches. Three day rainfall totals in northwest Missouri ranged up to 8.20
inches at Maryville. (The National Weather Summary)
 
http://www.ca.uky.edu   http://www.uky.edu
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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