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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
YESTERDAYS TROUGH MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. THERE WERE ONLY ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE AND THOSE WILL BE ENDING BEFORE DAYBREAK. A SLIGHTLY
SUBSIDENT AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH
AND COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS WILL 
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WHERE THETA-E RIDGE DEVELOPS AND CAP IS WEAKEST.
MEANWHILE...THERE IS A THETA-E MINIMUM ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
WITH LITTLE/NO CAPE AND MORE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STILL CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DRIFTING OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE BUT
THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOR PLAINS/I-25
CORRIDOR CONVECTION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY...AND MOUNTAIN AREAS EXPECT UP TO 10 DEGREES
WARMING DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT. THAT WILL
PUT US BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...ISOLATED HIGH COUNTRY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THEN LOOK FOR CLEARING OVERNIGHT
AND LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
 
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

PREVAILING FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES. THE WEATHER IN OUR REGION WILL BE DUE TO SUBTLE
SHIFTS IN THE RIDGES PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH.

FOR THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE WILL START OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. A TONGUE OF MOISTURE WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO CENTRAL COLORADO SATURDAY BRINGING JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH OF I-70.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
ANOTHER 90 DEGREE DAY POSSIBLE FOR THE PLAINS. DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY A STRONG TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC NW WILL
PUSH THE RIDGE EASTWARD AIDING IN INCREASING MOISTURE OVER
COLORADO. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ON THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION
ONTO THE PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS MINIMAL CAPE WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS. UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A DECENT INVERTED V SIGNATURE COMBINED WITH PW VALUES AROUND
0.85 INCH THAT COULD LEAD TO STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF MODERATE RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WILL BE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
LOWER 90S WITH COOLING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE FOR MONDAY
RETURNING HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TUESDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY START TO MAKES ITS
WAY BACK NORTH BRINGING MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PALMER DIVIDE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S FOR THE PLAINS AND 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
CLOUD COVER.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES VERY
LITTLE WITH SW FLOW REMAINING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THE
PLAINS AND 60S FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
600 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  PTCLDY    63  48  58 NW14      30.24R                  
A. F. ACADEMY  PTCLDY    54  49  83 N10       30.26R                  
ELLICOTT       PTCLDY   N/A N/A N/A NE7       30.22S                  
FALCON         PTCLDY    58  51  76 MISG      30.28S                  
FORT CARSON    PTCLDY    56  49  77 N8        30.21R                  
LIMON          PTCLDY    57  54  89 W10       30.17S                  
MONUMENT HILL  CLEAR     50  48  93 W9        30.31R                  
TRINIDAD       CLEAR     57  53  86 W9        30.20R                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 600am MDT, Friday August 28, 2015
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 57 degrees west, near 59 degrees central, and near 60 degrees east. Current sky conditions are clear west, partly cloudy central, and clear east. In the west, relative humidity is near 86%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 80%, and the dew point is near 53 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 96%, and the dew point is near 59 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the east at 6 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 63 degrees at COLO. SPRINGS. The lowest temperature is 37 degrees at MONARCH PASS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
632 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON 
AND EVENING IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.  THE MAIN THREATS WITH 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING  LOCAL WIND GUSTS UP TO 45
MPH  AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY  MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER
THE PLAINS APPEARS TO BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY
STORM THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING  GUSTY WINDS  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN  ESPECIALLY
ACROSS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
357 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015
TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 63 TO 75. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 46 TO 53. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 66 TO 77. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 48 TO 55. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 69 TO 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 49 TO 56.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 65 TO 76.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 48 TO 54. HIGHS 65 TO 76.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                 SEP 2-SEP 6 SEP 4-SEP 10   SEP        SEP-NOV                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above       Normal      Below      Below                      
 Precipitation:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
//////////////////////////////
AUGUST 28TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1898...
Torrents of rain accompanied by a furious wind upset the rain gage at Fort
Mohave AZ. However, water in a wash tub set out on the mesa, clear of
everything, measured eight inches after the 45 minute storm. (The Weather
Channel)
...1911...
Saint George GA was deluged with 18.00 inches of rain in 24 hours to
establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)
...1936...
Record heat in Kentucky included 100 degrees at Louisville and 
Lexington, and 106 at Bowling Green. (NWS Louisville)
...1959...
Lieutenant Colonel William Rankin bailed out of his plane at a height of
46,000 feet into a violent thunderstorm, and lived to write about the 45
minute journey (which normally would have been a thirteen minute descent).
He described it as one of the most bizarre and painful experiences
imaginable. (The Weather Channel)
...1971...
Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Doria caused devastating floods in central
and northeast New Jersey resulting in 138 million dollars damage. In
southeastern Pennsylvania, high winds downed trees and power lines, and in
New York City, heavy rains flooded streets and subways. (David Ludlum)
...1986...
The temperature at Apalachicola FL dipped to 62 degrees to shatter their
previous August record by four degrees, having tied their August record
high of 99 degrees on the 2nd of the month. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Severe thunderstorms broke the heat in the southeastern U.S. and the Gulf
Coast Region, but not before seven cities reported record high temperatures
for the date. The severe thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 80 mph
downing large trees around Horse Shoe NC, and pelted southeastern Meridian
MS with hail two inches in diameter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm
Data)
...1988...
Tropical Storm Chris spawned a tornado near Manning SC which killed one
person, and spawned three tornadoes in North Carolina. Chris produced one
to two foot tides, and three to six inch rains, over coastal South
Carolina. Severe thunderstorms in New York State and Vermont, developing
ahead of a cold front, spawned a tornado which killed one person at Hector
NY, produced tennis ball size hail at Brandon VT, and produced wind gusts
to 80 mph at Lyndonville VT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1989...
Early morning thunderstorms in Nebraska produced 4.50 inches of rain around
McCook, and 4.65 inches near Auburn and Brownville. Showers in Montana
pushed the rainfall total for the month at Havre past the previous August
record of 3.90 inches. (The National Weather Summary)
...1990...
Plainfield, IL, which is just south of Chicago, was struck by an F5 tornado 
destroying several businesses and Plainfield High School. An apartment 
complex in Crest Hill was hit and eight residents were killed. While the 
extent of F5 damage was not widespread, many residents were affected by this 
fast-moving tornado. There was a total of 21 fatalities from this storm.
(NWS Louisville)
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