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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
303 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS ACROSS COLORADO THIS MORNING AND WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY. INITIALLY...JUST SOME
THIN CIRRUS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AHEAD OF
THE TROF. LIKE YESTERDAY AM...FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KREMMLING SO
WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG IN ZONE 32.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
READINGS AROUND 70 DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE TROF WILL MOVE
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND A BIT
BETTER OROGRAPHIC FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT BUT WITH MOISTURE RATHER
SHALLOW AND WEAK QG FORCING...EXPECT ONLY VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS.
EXPECT INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT WITH APPROACHING TROF
WITH SPEEDS IN THE 40-60 MPH RANGE OVER HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO BY WED AFTN AND
THEN BE EAST OF THE AREA BY WED EVENING. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM RATHER LIMITED SO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
MTNS WILL BE LIGHT. OVER NERN CO IT WILL BE DRY WITH A RATHER STG
SFC GRADIENT IN PLACE THRU MID AFTN AS A PACIFIC TYPE FNT MOVES
ACROSS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY NW WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN
ADDITION WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE FOOTHILLS AS WELL HOWEVER
SPEEDS SHOULD STAY BLO HIGH WIND CRITERIA. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER
WITH READINGS IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS NERN CO.
FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU A WK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW SOME MINOR UPSLOPE IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS WITH QUITE A BIT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE BY 12Z THU. THUS IT
WOULD NOT BE A TOTAL SURPRISE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME IN AND NR THE FOOTHILLS THU MORNING. OTHERWISE
THE REST OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN IN
THE MTNS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL DROP BACK TO SEASONAL LEVELS
OVER NERN CO.
ON FRI A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US WITH SW FLOW
ALOFT. MID LVL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE DAY
WITH A CHC OF -SHSN IN THE MTNS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70. OVER NERN
CO IT WILL BE DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHC OF -SHRA OVER THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY LATE AFTN. AS FOR HIGH WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 40S OVER
FOR SAT THRU SAT NIGHT THE GFS TAKES THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL OVER THE
SWRN US AND MOVES IT ENE ACROSS SRN CO/NRN NM WHILE TRYING TO MERGE
IT WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM TRACKING SE IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A
RESULT IT HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPREADING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH
SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT. IN ADDITION A CDFNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO
NERN CO WITH AN INCREASE IN UPSLOPE FLOW LATE IN THE AFTN INTO SAT
EVENING. THIS LEADS TO A GOOD CHC OF SNOW FM SAT INTO SAT EVENING
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH AND DOES NOT MERGE IT WITH THE WEAKER SECONDARY SYSTEM
IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES EVEN THE
ECMWF SHOWS SOME WK MID LVL ASCENT OVER THE AREA ON SAT ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. FURTHERMORE IT ALSO HAS SURGE OF COOLER
AIR AS WELL BY AFTN INTO SAT EVENING SO EVEN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
LEAD TO A CHC OF SOME LIGHT PCPN. THUS WILL MENTION A CHC OF SNOW
IN MOST AREAS ON SAT WITH COOLER TEMPS.
BY SUN APPEARS DRIER AIR IN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF SNOW IN THE MTNS. 850-700 MB TEMPS ARE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN SAT SO WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S OVER
NERN CO. FOR MON MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE MTNS WITH A
CHC OF SNOW. OVER NERN CO A SFC LEE TROUGH IS FCST TO DVLP WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS.
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]
BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress
Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
900 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS MOSUNNY 56 25 30 N6 30.23F
A. F. ACADEMY SUNNY 47 23 39 N5 30.23F
ELLICOTT SUNNY N/A N/A N/A CALM 30.22S
FALCON SUNNY 56 20 25 NW3 30.27S
FORT CARSON SUNNY 50 21 32 NW10 30.20F
LIMON SUNNY 52 26 36 VRB5 30.18S
MONUMENT HILL SUNNY 50 19 29 SW8 30.25F
TRINIDAD MOSUNNY 49 24 37 W13 30.24F
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 900am MST, Tuesday January 27, 2015
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 34 degrees west, near 53 degrees central, and near 44 degrees east. Current sky conditions are mostly sunny west, mostly sunny central, and sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 28 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 29%, and the dew point is near 22 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 60%, and the dew point is near 31 degrees. Winds are from the southeast at 5 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The wind chill is near 30 degrees west. Winds are from the southwest at 17 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the west at 9 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The livestock cold stress index is in the no stress category west, no stress category central, and no stress category east. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 57 degrees at SPRINGFIELD. The lowest temperature is -2 degrees at GUNNISON.
US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
621 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
DAY ONE TODAY AND TONIGHT
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
MAY TRICKLE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AND LESS THAN AN INCH.
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR AROUND AN INCH OF NEW SNOW TO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM TAKING A
MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PUEBLO FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
951 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015
REST OF TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 48 TO 60. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 27 TO 36. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 38 TO 50. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 21 TO 29. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS 32 TO 39. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 21 TO 28.
CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW. HIGHS 33 TO 42.
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 19 TO 28.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 24 TO 33.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 11 TO 20.
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 28 TO 35.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 16 TO 23. HIGHS 35 TO 43.
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
FEB 1-FEB 5 FEB 3-FEB 9 FEB FEB-APR
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Below
Precipitation: Below Below Above Above
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
HISTORICAL WEATHER FACTS
The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington
reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded
about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)
Record crests on the Ohio River were attained at Clifty Creek (475.9 feet),
McAlpine Upper (52.15 feet), McAlpine Lock (85.44 feet), and Cannelton Lock
(60.8 feet). A record crest was reached on the Green River as well, with a
stage of 41.6 feet at Rochester. (NWS Louisville)
Oswego NY was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the
town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)
Residents of Chicago IL began to dig out from a storm which produced 23
inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for
days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum)
Most of western and central Kentucky has experienced 30 consecutive days
with above normal temperatures. (NWS Paducah)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky