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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
426 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

NEGATIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED TO A CLOSED LOW PRESENTLY OVER
THE SAN JUAN MTNS IN SWRN COLORADO IS PROGGED TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT NECESSARY TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO TODAY. PRECIPITATION HAS PRIMARILY BEEN SNOW
SINCE LATE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF
RAINFALL ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...SUCH AS THE MODERATE
RAINFALL AT STERLING. HOWEVER WITH TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
AND ENOUGH SOLAR ENERGY FILTERING THROUGH THE OVERCAST...THERE HAS
NOT BEEN SNOW ACCUMULATION ON THE PLAINS...EXCEPT ALONG THE PALMER
DIVIDE IN DOUGLAS AND ELBERT COUNTIES. RECEIVED A SNOW DEPTH REPORT
OF 14 INCHES NEAR THE TOWN OF MATHESON SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ZONE 41.
THIS LOOKS VERY LOCALIZED. SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THIS ZONE GENERALLY
IN THE 3-8 INCH RANGE. AS FOR THE FRONT RANGE MTNS...FOOTHILLS AND
SOUTH PARK ZONES UNDER THE WINTER STORM WARNING...SNOW ACCUMS WITH
THIS STORM MARGINALLY REACHED WARNING CRITERIA. HIGH COUNTRY ROAD
WAYS ALSO SAW LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. 

RADAR SHOWS A SHARP SOUTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP BAND LIFTING NORTH
OVER NERN COLORADO ATTM. THIS EDGE HAS REACHED SRN LINCOLN COUNTY.
AND IS EXPECTED TO THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR AROUND DENVER BY 02Z
THIS EVENING...AND MUCH SOONER THAN THAT FOR THE LIMON AREA. WITH
COOLING TEMPS AND A LOWERING SUN ANGLE...THERE'S A BETTER FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION ON THE PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE EAST FACE OF THE FRONT
RANGE DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS ON THE
FRONT RANGE AND SOUTH PARK WOULD NOT WARRANT HOLDING ONTO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WOULD SUFFICE. IT'LL STILL
RUN UNTIL 06Z TONIGHT. LASTLY ADDED FOG TO THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. VSBYS ANYWHERE FROM A
QUARTER MILE TO 4 MILES THROUGH THE EVENING.  

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW STILL IMPACTING NORTHEAST
COLORADO FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE
OF THIS LOW AND A COOL N-NWLY WIND SHOULD KEEP THE FCST AREA
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND UNSETTLED. QG VV FIELDS SHOW A LOBE OF MID-
LEVEL LIFT SWINGING DOWN FROM SERN WYOMING DURING THE MORNING LIKELY
RESULTING IN AN UPTURN IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE NERN
PLAINS AND NRN FRONT RANGE. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A POSSIBILITY.
LATER IN THE DAY...THE CWA GRADUALLY COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
THERE PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD LIKEWISE DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES NEXT 24 HOURS WELL
BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY 3-6 DEG F WARMER
THAN THOSE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THERE WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE AND A
SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER NEAR THE GROUND...SO A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS IN ORDER. THERE MAY BE WIDESPREAD DRIPPINESS
BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. THERE WAS SOME
THOUGHT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE EARLIER...BUT IT APPEARS TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING WITH WARM AND WET ROADS. IF THERE
WERE UPSLOPE WINDS I WOULD BE CONCERNED WITH A RIBBON OF
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL
NOT BE THE CASE.

THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT AND DEFINITION OF A WAVE
PASSING OVER AND SOUTH OF US ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST LIFT
SHOULD BE TO THE SOUTH...AND IS GENERALLY WEAK...BUT IT WILL BE
WORKING ON A PRETTY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND A SHALLOW UNSTABLE LAYER. SO IT MAY NOT BE HARD TO GENERATE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION AGAIN. RAISED POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD...NOT READY TO COMMIT TO THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVERYWHERE YET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THEY
ARE NOW AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHTER...SO THERE SHOULD BE LESS
IMPACT THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY. STILL PROBABLY SOME SNOW
THOUGH...AT LEAST ABOVE 5000 FEET. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON
THE CLEARING OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY...TRENDS ARE TOWARD MOVING
THE HIGHER LEVEL LIFT OUT EARLY MONDAY BUT WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING MUCH OF THE DAY.

A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER US FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WRINKLE
THAT DEVELOPED IN LAST NIGHTS ECMWF IS PERSISTING TODAY...A LOW
THAT DEVELOPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND DROPS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 
IF THIS DOES OCCUR...AND IT IS A MINORITY OPINION...IT IS PROBABLY
NOT MUCH OF A WEATHER MAKER BUT COULD HOLD BACK THE WARMING AND
GENERATE SOME CLOUD COVER...MAINLY AFFECTING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. PRETTY WARM BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WE COULD BE BACK
NEAR 80. THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ON A BIG LOW MOVING INTO
THE WEST FOR NEXT WEEKEND...SO WE COULD BE BACK TO COOL AND WET BY
SUNDAY. WAY TOO EARLY FOR ANY CONFIDENCE OR DETAILS YET...A
PACIFIC SYSTEM WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE REAL COLD...LIKELY WARMER
THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
500 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  SNOW      33  30  88 NE8       29.88S VSB 1/4 WCI  26  
A. F. ACADEMY  LGT SNOW  32  32 100 N9        29.86S FOG     WCI  24  
SCHRIEVER AFB  NOT AVBL                                               
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         LGT SNOW  33  30  89 N7        29.87S WCI  26          
FORT CARSON    FLURRIES  34  32  93 N7        29.86S WCI  28          
LIMON          LGT SNOW  32  31  96 N10       29.86F VSB 1   WCI  24  
MONUMENT HILL  LGT SNOW  30  28  93 N10       29.88S WCI  21          
TRINIDAD       CLOUDY    34  30  85 N8        29.84S WCI  27          
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 500pm MDT, Friday April 29, 2016
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 57 degrees west, near 33 degrees central, and near 39 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, light snow central, and cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 41%, and the dew point is near 34 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 88%, and the dew point is near 30 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 92%, and the dew point is near 37 degrees. Winds are from the northwest at 17 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the north at 8 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to light snow. The wind chill is near degrees central. Winds are from the northeast at 9 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 57 degrees at GRAND JUNCTION. The lowest temperature is 21 degrees at WOLF CREEK PAS and MONARCH PASS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1104 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

SNOW AND RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
INTO THIS EVENING  BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A FEW INCHES
AT MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS TO AROUND A FOOT OR MORE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE  THE WET
MOUNTAINS AND TELLER COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE
HEAVY  WET NATURE OF THE SNOW  POWER OUTAGES  TREE DAMAGE AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS ANTICIPATED OVER SNOW COVERED LOCATIONS.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7000 FEET. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
THE SNOW AND RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN COLORADO ON SUNDAY. THIS STORM WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
SAN JUANS  SANGRE DE CRISTOS  WET MOUNTAINS  AND PIKES PEAK
REGION. AT THIS TIME  IT LOOKS LIKE AN ADDITIONAL 6-12 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY  ESPECIALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25. CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS.

ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT STORM COULD AFFECT OUR AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING.




7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
305 PM MDT FRI APR 29 2016
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
TONIGHT
CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY. AREAS OF FOG. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS 19 TO 27. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 28 TO 38. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LOWS 18 TO 25. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SUNDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS 27 TO 34. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS 19 TO 27. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 33 TO 41.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 30.
TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 39 TO 49.
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 27 TO 34.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 45 TO 56.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 30 TO 37.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 52 TO 64.
THURSDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 35 TO 43.
FRIDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 54 TO 65.

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                 MAY 5-MAY 9 MAY 7-MAY 13    MAY       MAY-JUL                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal        Below      Below     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
APRIL 29TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1905...
The town of Taylor, in southeastern Texas, was deluged with 2.4 inches of
rain in fifteen minutes. (The Weather Channel)
...1910...
The temperature at Kansas City MO soared to 95 degrees to establish a
record for the month of April. Four days earlier the afternoon high in
Kansas City was 44 degrees, following a record cold morning low of 34
degrees. (The Weather Channel) (The Kansas City Weather Almanac)
...1963...
A tornado, as much as 100 yards in width, touched down south of Shannon MS.
The tornado destroyed twenty-seven homes along its eighteen mile path,
killing three persons. Asphalt was torn from Highway 45 and thrown hundreds
of yards away. Little rain or snow accompanied the tornado, so it was
visible for miles. (The Weather Channel)
...2011...
April 2011 ended with historic, record rainfall across the Bluegrass state. 
Severe storms, tornadoes, flooding and flash flooding was widespread. (UKAWC: K. 
Thomas Priddy)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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