NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 353 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 353 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AS EXPECTED. PEAK GUSTS HAVE RANGED ANYWHERE FROM 45 TO 74 MPH IN THE WIND PRONE AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST OBSERVED AT THE NCAR MESA LAB. THERE SHOULD BE JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING WITH THE CROSS MOUNTAIN COMPONENT INCREASING ANOTHER 5 KNOTS OR SO. MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH EARLY MORNING AS WELL SO WE WILL BE BRUSHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA BUT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOCALIZED IF WE DO GET THE ENHANCEMENT. WILL MONITOR THROUGH THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONE CHANGE WE DID MAKE WAS TO KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS GOING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH STRONG CROSS MOUNTAIN PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MEAN STATE CRITICAL LAYER REMAINING IN PLACE. THE FLOW DOES TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO ALSO SHIFT ACROSS PARK COUNTY. SUFFICIENT SNOW COVER EXISTS FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TO REMAIN IN EFFECT...ALTHOUGH LATEST REPORTS FROM HIGHWAY 93 ARE MANAGEABLE FOR TRAVEL. A POSSIBLE EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED IN AREAS THAT HAVE MORE SNOW DEPTH AND WHERE WINDS HOLD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW THAT WOULD FAVOR WIDE OPEN SPACES IN PARK COUNTY. WILL LET DAY SHIFT GET A DAYLIGHT VIEW OF THE SITUATION AND IMPACTS BEFORE CHANGING EXPIRATION TIME OF ANY HIGHLIGHTS. ON THE PLAINS...GUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER AND THESE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH SOME DAYTIME MIXING AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. A BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT WARMING ON THE PLAINS ALTHOUGH LOCATIONS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD STILL WARM UP AND BE AROUND 40 FOR HIGHS WITH THE STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FLOW ALOFT. IN THE MOUNTAINS...ANY SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITH A VERY STABLE AND DRIER MOUNTAIN TOP AIRMASS MOVING IN. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 353 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 WEATHER WILL BE MODERATING THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE TRAVERSES FROM THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS WILL RELAX...RESULTING IN LESS WIND AT ALL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL ALSO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND FLOW ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL. MODELS THEN POINT TO A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BEGIN FALLING AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAINS FOR NOW...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME SORT OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THE CANADIAN IS SHOWING THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A MORE OPEN TROUGH THAT IS A FEW HOURS SLOWER. AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT...MORE UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS.National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLO. SPRINGS FAIR 33 2 26 NW13 29.89R WCI 24 A. F. ACADEMY FAIR 31 -2 24 NE3 29.88R ELLICOTT FAIR N/A N/A N/A CALM 29.88 FALCON FAIR 29 5 35 NW9 29.89R WCI 21 FORT CARSON FAIR 24 15 66 W6 29.88R WCI 17 LIMON FAIR 23 11 60 W7 29.89R WCI 15 MONUMENT HILL FAIR 21 1 42 W7 29.88R WCI 13 TRINIDAD FAIR 33 9 36 NW5 29.94R WCI 29
624 AM MST TUE DEC 1 2015 DAY ONE TODAY AND TONIGHT LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AT TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIMARILY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS THIS MORNING OTHERWISE DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
COLORADO --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY DEC 6-DEC 10 DEC 8-DEC 14 DEC DEC-FEB ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Above Above Normal Normal Precipitation: Below Normal Above Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
DECEMBER 1ST HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS ...1831... The coldest December of record in the northeastern U.S. commenced. Temperatures in New York City averaged 22 degrees, with just four days above freezing, and at Burlington VT the temperature never did get above freezing. The Erie Canal was closed the first day of December, and remained closed the entire month. (David Ludlum) ...1896... The temperature at Kipp MT rose 30 degrees in just seven minutes, and 80 degrees in a matter of a few hours. A thirty-inch snow cover was melted in half a day. (The Weather Channel) ...1913... A six day front range snowstorm began. It produced a record total of 46 inches at Denver CO. (David Ludlum) ...1985... A storm produced more than six inches of snow from the Northern and Central Plains to parts of Michigan, with 36.4 inches reported at Marquette MI. Many roads were blocked by snow. A family was stranded for 25 hours south of Colome SD. Drifts twelve feet high were reported in north central Nebraska. (The Weather Channel) ...1987... A powerful storm hit the northwestern U.S. Winds gusted to 80 mph at Cape Disappointment WA, and reached 94 mph at Cape Blanco OR. Thunderstorms in western Washington State produced wind gusts to 60 mph, and dime size hail at Hoquiam. Stevens Pass, in the Cascade Mountains of Washington, received seven inches of snow during the morning hours. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS ...1988... Squalls in the Great Lakes Region produced up to a foot of snow in Ashtabula County OH, up to ten inches in Erie County PA, and up to a foot of snow in western New York State. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) ...1989... Heavy snow blanketed the mountains of New Mexico, with 12 inches reported at the Angel Fire Ski Basin. Strong northerly winds ushering cold air into the north central U.S. gusted to 55 mph at Devils Lake ND. Low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska produced wind gusts to 69 mph at Kodiak Island. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)