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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
450 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 450 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Details of todays weather will be highly dependent on the
evolution of low level wind/temperature/moisture fields as a
result of several waves of convection dropping south across the
plains. Pinning down the details will be difficult, but the
environment looks favorable for severe thunderstorms at some point
on the plains. For areas near Denver, the prospects are much more
muddled. 

Common themes in the models include:

A batch of convection moving near the northeast corner early this
morning (which looks like it should pass just east of our area),
followed by another round of storms dropping through the same area
around midday. These features are already present upstream with
the second one driven by a little shortwave that the models do
capture. 

A tendency for easterly winds, reinforced at times by outflow from
convection, that maintains low level moisture across much of the
area.

A preference for the moisture to pool north of Denver, with the
outflow fighting a southerly wind component and some drying on the
Palmer Divide. Most models generate some convection off the
Laramie Range in Wyoming or in the Cheyenne area that tracks
southeast through this moisture in the late afternoon or evening.

The difficulty lies in the details of the wind field and the
pattern of available energy. A steady flow of east winds would
bring juicy air as far west as the Front Range by the end of the
day. However the threat of some drying over the higher elevations
south of Denver combined with southeast storm motions from the
more favored areas north of Denver appears to limit the threat
south of town, putting Denver on the edge of the severe weather
threat. Also worth noting that the runs with the strongest outflow
have quite cool temperatures by late afternoon and the incoming
moisture may not be enough to overcome the cooling, or at least
the cooling might limit the resulting evening convection near
Denver to one quick shot as the convergence is needed to overcome
capping. 

Expected CAPEs vary wildly based on the above variables. There
should be an area of at least 1000 J/kg in place that gets
convection, and shear is adequate to generate tilted storms and
supercells. So there is a decent threat of severe weather. Main
threat should be large hail, with some wind potential as well.
Heavy rain also possible but storms should be moving enough to
keep the flash flood threat low. It does appear the Denver area is
on the edge of the threat, with the most likely timing here in the
early evening from outflow boundaries feeding new convection as
the moisture increases. Previous forecast and SPC outlooks were
pretty reasonable, I just made a few minor timing adjustments and
added the mention of severe storms across the plains.

IR satellite imagery has shown continued active burning on the
Beaver Creek wildfire near the border southwest of Laramie as it
has remained pretty warm, dry, and breezy overnight. There was an
impressive smoke plume at sunset, and there likely still is one
though I can't find it in the pictures at this time. With similar
weather today the plume will likely persist moving toward the east
and southeast. For the most part the smoke will be elevated coming
across the plains, but it will be denser over parts of Jackson and
Larimer counties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 450 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

As upper ridging remains over the southern U.S. through the next
week, subtropical moisture is forecast to work its way under the
ridge and over Colorado. Temperatures will be remaining warm, and
each day will feature a chance of thunderstorms somewhere over
north central and northeast Colorado. Friday is expected to be the
coolest day of the lot, in the wake of anticipated outflows from
this evening's thunderstorm activity over the plains. There will
also be a decent chance of showers Friday afternoon as high
pressure over the northern Great Plains will funnel easterly low
level flow into Colorado. Daytime warming and the presence of
low and mid-level moisture will combine to produce isolated to
scattered shower coverage, mainly in the evening.  

Saturday and Sunday could see a slight drop in the coverage of
showers as temperatures aloft over the state warm up enough to cap
most shower activity. By Monday and Tuesday, models are showing
additional mid-level moisture moving into the state from the
south. That will set up a daily pattern of afternoon showers over
the mountains moving onto the plains in the late afternoons and
evenings. All in all, typical weather for the first part of
August. The threat of locally heavy rain will be on the increase
through the week, especially if the winds at mid and upper levels
diminish, leading to slow storm motions. These will be things to
assess later next week.  

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
1000 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  FAIR      70  56  61 VRB7      30.26F                  
A. F. ACADEMY  MOSUNNY   71  55  58 S9        30.26                   
SCHRIEVER AFB  NOT AVBL                                               
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         NOT AVBL                                               
FORT CARSON    FAIR      72  57  60 N7        30.23F                  
LIMON          FAIR      74  57  55 SW15G25   30.20R                  
MONUMENT HILL  FAIR      72  54  53 SW9       30.30F                  
TRINIDAD       NOT AVBL                                               
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 1000am MDT, Thursday July 28, 2016
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 81 degrees west, near 73 degrees central, and near 82 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 18%, and the dew point is near 34 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 61%, and the dew point is near 59 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 40%, and the dew point is near 56 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the southeast at 13 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the north at 15 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the south at 18 mph with gusts at 26 mph east, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 84 degrees at LA JUNTA and CORTEZ. The lowest temperature is 55 degrees at WOLF CREEK PAS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
546 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A WEATHER DISTURBANCE AND A FRONT WILL
AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS, BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
HOWEVER, OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND
60 MPH. 

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ON FRIDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS SWITCHING TO OVER AND
NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING  GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45
MPH  SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD
BECOME SEVERE, PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS  ESPECIALLY IF THEY OCCUR OVER URBAN AREAS OR
BURN SCARS.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS.


7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
355 AM MDT THU JUL 28 2016
TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 73 TO 85. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 49 TO 57. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 66 TO 77. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. LOWS 50 TO 57. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 74 TO 83. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 51 TO 60.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 74 TO 85.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 51 TO 62.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 70 TO 82. LOWS 50 TO 60.
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 51 TO 60.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 69 TO 79.

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                 AUG 2-AUG 6 AUG 4-AUG 10    AUG       AUG-OCT                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal       Normal      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:      Below       Normal     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
///////////////////////////
JULY 28TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1819...
A small but intense hurricane passed over Bay Saint Louis MS. The hurricane
was considered the worst in fifty years. Few houses were left standing
either at Bay Saint Louis or at Pass Christian, and much of the Mississippi
coast was desolate following the storm. A U.S. cutter was lost along with
its thirty-nine crew members. The storm struck the same area that was hit
150 years later by Hurricane Camille. (David Ludlum)
...1930...
The temperature at Greensburg KY soared to 114 degrees to set a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
...1934...
The temperature at Grofino ID climbed to 118 degrees to establish a record
for Idaho. (The Weather Channel)
...1952...
A severe storm with hail up to an inch and a half in diameter broke
windows, ruined roofs, and stripped trees of leaves near Benson AZ. The
temperature dropped to 37 degrees, as hail was three to four inches deep,
with drifts 46 inches high. (The Weather Channel)
...1986...
Severe thunderstorms moving out of South Dakota across Iowa produce high
winds which derailed eighteen piggyback trailer cars of a westbound freight
train near Boone IA. Sixteen of the cars fell 187 feet into the Des Moines
River. The thunderstorms also spawned a number of tornadoes, including one
which caused twenty-five to fifty million dollars damage at Sloan, near
Sioux City IA. (Storm Data)
...1987...
Thunderstorms in Nevada produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Searchlight,
reducing visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Thunderstorms
in Montana drenched Lonesome Lake with 3.78 inches of rain. (The National
Weather Summary)
...1988...
Thunderstorms drenched Wilmington NC with 3.33 inches of rain, bringing
their monthly total 14.46 inches. Seven cities in Michigan and Minnesota
reported record high temperatures for the date. Marquette MI hit 99
degrees, and the record high of 94 degrees at Flint MI was their tenth of
the month. (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Afternoon thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in
Massachusetts. Early evening thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts
to 68 mph at Fort Myers, and evening thunder-storms in South Dakota
produced nearly two inches of rain in twenty minutes at Pierpoint. (The
National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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