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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR WALSENBURG AT THIS TIME TRACKING SLOWLY EAST. DRY
SLOT HAS CURLED AROUND ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK FROM WYOMING INTO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
AT THIS TIME THE BACK PART OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE STRONG
LIFT WITH IT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. A COMPLEX PATTERN...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE MODELS HAVE
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. DETAILS OF JUST WHERE
THE BANDING STRUCTURE AND CONVECTION ARE VARY CONSIDERABLY. LIKING
THE HRRR PRESENTATION OF THE DEVELOPING BACK EDGE SNOW BAND ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ROUGHLY FROM LARAMIE TOWARD RIFLE THIS MORNING.
HARD TO SAY IF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE BEST OF
THIS...OR IF IT WILL STAY FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRIER AIR CURLING
BACK OVER THE FRONT RANGE. I DID INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...HELD OFF ON INCREASING AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AS THE SNOW
MAY TEND TOWARD LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH A STEADY
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW. IF THAT BAND WOBBLES FURTHER
EAST AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. MEANWHILE ON THE PLAINS THERE IS
DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVER THIS AREA...AND THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT
FROM THE TIP OF THE WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. NOT AS MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
RISK TODAY...CAPES LIKELY AROUND 300 J/KG AROUND DENVER AND 600
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. I WOULD SAY NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE THREAT
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD TEMPERATURES...COULD BE SOME HAIL OUT EAST BUT
IT SHOULD BE HARD TO GET LARGE HAIL.

FOR TONIGHT THE BACK EDGE BAND WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS ALSO INCREASING...WHICH COULD WARM/DRY AREAS
NORTH OF DENVER BUT ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SNOW SOUTH OF DENVER.
THE NORTH WIND SHOULD ALSO BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BACK DOWN TO 5-6 THOUSAND FEET.
HOWEVER AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS...SO STILL EXPECTING LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THERE IS WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CWA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN BENIGN ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAKER NORTHEASTERLIES SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN A HINT AT NORMAL
DRAINAGE PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY FOR
THE CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM BEING THE DRIEST. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS BEING THE WETTEST. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE DAY SUNDAY DAY. THERE IS A BIT
MORE CAPE OVER ALL THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY...BUT STILL
PRETTY MEAGER AMOUNTS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS...20-50%S ARE GOOD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOWER NUMBERS FOR THE PLAINS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY'S HIGHS ARE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY'S BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY'S HIGHS
ONLY WARM UP 1-2 C FROM SUNDAY'S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NOW ON THE MODELS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS WEAKER THAN IT DID
ON YESTERDAY'S 00Z RUNS AND IT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. 

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
900 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  PTSUNNY   41  33  73 NE8       29.94F                  
A. F. ACADEMY  MOSUNNY   39  30  70 N10       29.93S                  
ELLICOTT       MOSUNNY  N/A N/A N/A NE10      29.93F                  
FALCON         PTSUNNY   37  31  81 N6        29.95R                  
FORT CARSON    MOSUNNY   41  33  74 NE7       29.93S                  
LIMON          CLOUDY    38  36  92 N5        29.94R                  
MONUMENT HILL  CLOUDY    34  32  93 NW5       29.94S FOG     WCI  30  
TRINIDAD       PTSUNNY   42  25  50 W9        29.94S                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 800am MDT, Saturday April 18, 2015
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 34 degrees west, near 39 degrees central, and near 46 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fog west, cloudy central, and sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 100%, and the dew point is near 34 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 82%, and the dew point is near 41 degrees. Visibility is less than one mile west. Winds are from the east at 3 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to fog. Winds are calm central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northwest at 9 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 46 degrees at LAMAR. The lowest temperature is 12 degrees at MONARCH PASS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
639 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER MANY 
OF THE MOUNTAINS LOCATIONS.  THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING  WITH LIGHTNING 
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER  SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN THE OFFING SUNDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY  WITH OCCASIONAL PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS PRODUCING DAILY
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO FEW INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY  MAINLY OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING  WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 45 MPH EXPECTED
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA  ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM
ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE LIGHTNING  WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE 
LIKELY OVER MANY MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT  AND WILL BE 
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
848 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015
REST OF TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 34 TO 43. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS
RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 22 TO 31. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
THEN CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 35 TO 44. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 21 TO 28. LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 35 TO 44. LIGHT WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 23 TO 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 43 TO 52.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 25 TO 33. HIGHS 47 TO 57.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 28 TO 36.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS 49 TO 59.
THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 28 TO 37.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 45 TO 53.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   APR 23-27 APR 25-MAY 1   APR        APR-JUN                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Below        Below      Below     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
APRIL 18TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1880...
More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to
Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65
persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum)
...1906...
A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread
fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum)
...1944...
California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two
million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley
destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel)
...1957...
A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air,
and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three
were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it
moved westward. (The Weather Channel)
...1970...
Rapid City SD received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th)
(The Weather Channel)
 
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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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