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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE PLAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES COOLER WITH
THE SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND COOL ADVECTION. THERE WERE SCATTERED
TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBS EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
WYOMING INTO NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR WORKS IN. 

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES SLIGHTLY AND IN THE COLDER AIRMASS SHOULD SEE SOME
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LATEST WRF SYNTHETIC SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
NICELY AND LARGELY WENT WITH THIS SOLUTION. MOST PLACE THAT WILL
SEE SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE ALREADY REACHED END OF
GROWING SEASON CRITERIA OF 28F OR COLDER SO NO FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING ON SUNDAY DUE
TO STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES...DOWNSTREAM FROM A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY COULD BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE GREAT BASIN. BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS INCREASING.  

FOR MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EACH HAVE A SLIGHTLY
DIFFERENT SOLUTION FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
AS IT MOVES OVER COLORADO. THE ECMWF HAS THE SLOWEST AND DEEPEST
SOLUTION...WHICH INCLUDES A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING OVER ARIZONA ON
TUESDAY THAT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN SOLUTIONS STAY CLOSER TO EACH OTHER WITH THE POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT WITH SOME ENERGY HANGING BACK OVER NEW MEXICO.
EITHER SOLUTION WILL RESULT IN SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN
THAT IT IS HARD TO TELL WHICH SOLUTION WILL COME TO PASS...THE
FORECAST WILL HAVE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION  ALONG WITH THE  COOLEST TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.  

BEYOND TUESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER COLORADO
BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
800 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  CLEAR     43  23  45 N10       30.39R                  
A. F. ACADEMY  CLEAR     32  21  65 N6        30.39R WCI  26          
ELLICOTT       CLEAR     41  23  48 N10       30.36R                  
FALCON         CLEAR     38  22  52 W7        30.40R                  
FORT CARSON    CLEAR     41  23  49 N8        30.36R                  
LIMON          CLEAR     36  23  59 NW3       30.36R                  
MONUMENT HILL  CLEAR     32  21  64 NW3       30.38S                  
TRINIDAD       PTCLDY    33  18  53 W9        30.38R WCI  25          
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 800am MDT, Thursday October 30, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 35 degrees west, near 41 degrees central, and near 36 degrees east. Current sky conditions are clear west, partly cloudy central, and clear east. In the west, relative humidity is near 56%, and the dew point is near 21 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 53%, and the dew point is near 25 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 67%, and the dew point is near 26 degrees. Winds are from the east at 7 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. The wind chill is near 29 degrees west. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the south at 9 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 45 degrees at BROOMFIELD. The lowest temperature is 18 degrees at GUNNISON.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
613 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL WAVER BETWEEN
10000 AND 11000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
COULD PICK UP A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.

SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM GLANCES BY TO THE WEST. ADDITIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
RESULTING IN WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER PEAKS AND
PASSES. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE EASTERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS  INCLUDING WOLF CREEK PASS.

THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE MAINLY STRONG WINDS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THESE GUSTY WINDS MAY
RESULT IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR RAPID RATES OF FIRE SPREAD FOR
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS DEPENDING ON HOW LOW THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP.

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW  SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE APPEAR LIGHT.
HOWEVER  THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST
STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS  THE FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS IS STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EITHER WAY  IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE MAY OCCUR ACROSS
MOST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
406 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014
TODAY
SUNNY. HIGHS 47 TO 58. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS NEAR 30. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 47 TO 58. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 29 TO 37. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 52 TO 63. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 32 TO 39.
SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 45 TO 55.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 25 TO 33.
MONDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 34 TO 43.
MONDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 19 TO 25.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 40 TO 53. LOWS 25 TO 31.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                 NOV 4-NOV 8 NOV 6-NOV 12   NOV        NOV-JAN                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Below        Below     Normal      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
/////////////////////////
OCTOBER 30TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1925...
Nashville TN was blanketed with an inch of snow, their earliest measurable
snow of record. (The Weather Channel)
...1947...
The Donora PA smog disaster finally came to an end. For five days an
inversion trapped impurities in the lower atmosphere over the Monongahela
Valley killing 20 persons, and leaving more than 2000 others sick.
(26th-30th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Severe thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced golf ball size hail and wind
gusts to 74 mph near the town of Gould. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed
across the central U.S. Temperatures warmed into the 80s form Texas to the
Lower Missouri Valley. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Ten cities in the Upper Midwest reported record low temperatures for the
date. The morning low of 20 degrees at South Bend IND was a record for
October, and lows of 18 degrees at Grand Rapids MI and 20 degrees at Fort
Wayne IND equalled records for October. The low of 2 degrees at
International Falls MN smashed their previous record for the date by 11
degrees. Syracuse NY received 2.9 inches of snow to establish a record for
October with 5.7 inches for the month. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
...1989...
Temperatures soared into the 70s in the northeastern U.S. The record high
of 73 degrees at Alpena MI marked their sixth straight day of record
warmth. In the western U.S., Klamath Falls OR reported a record low of 19
degrees. (The National Weather Summary)
 
http://www.ca.uky.edu   http://www.uky.edu
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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