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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
357 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

WARM AND DRY IS IN STORE FOR THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THU AND FRI ACCOMPANIED BY SOME UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS WAVE CLOUDS
BUT NO PRECIPITATION. LEE TROFING AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW SOME OF
THE MID LEVEL WESTERLIES TO MIX DOWN INTO THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
LATE THU FOR SOME MODERATE GUSTS EXCEEDING 20KT... BUT THERMAL
STRUCTURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT FAVOR MIXING OF THE
WESTERLIES INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

DEEPENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST CREATED A
RECIPROCATING LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MTN WEST BY FRIDAY. BENEATH THIS STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXPECT ANOMOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW HUMIDITIES...LIGHT WINDS 
AND VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
STORM TRACK/JET STREAM RESIDING UP NEAR THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.
IT APPEARS HIGH TEMPS AT MANY LOCALES ON FRIDAY...THE 25TH COULD
EASILY MATCH IF NOT EXCEED RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DATE. RECORD HIGH
AT DENVER ON THE 25TH IS 80. MAY SURPASS THAT BE A FEW DEGREES
F...ASSUMING THE MORNING MTN WAVE CLOUD DOESN/T HANG AROUND TOO
LONG. ALSO COMPARE THAT TO A NORMAL HIGH OF 62F. IT/S GOING TO
FEEL LIKE LATE SUMMER AROUND HERE. IF THAT/S NOT ENOUGH...MIN
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY ALSO COME VERY CLOSE 
TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR THE DATE.

ON SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO FALL AS THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH 
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS TO EQUAL OR EXCEED THE
RECORD HIGH FOR THE 26TH. RECORD AT DENVER IS 80. MAY BEAT THAT BY
A DEG OR TWO. AS THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS...SFC WINDS
MAINLY ON THE PLAINS REMAIN LIGHT WITH A WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. PRECIP STILL WELL NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT RANGE AT
THAT TIME.  

SUNDAY STARTS OUT BALMY...ESLY IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE/DOWN VALLEY WINDS. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE GUSTS TO
AROUND 35 KTS IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AT 12Z. DURING THE DAY...THE
UPPER RIDGE COMES ITS EASTWARD MIGRATION AS A CHILLY AND WET UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. ACCORDING TO
GFS...ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN FROM
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.
EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...WARM AND GUSTY
SWLY SFC WINDS COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS NEARING THE RECORD AGAIN AT MANY LOCATIONS SUCH AS DENVER.
HOWEVER DO NOT SEE THE RECORD HIGH OF 83F AT DENVER IN DANGER ON
SUNDAY. BY AFTERNOON...THE NORTHERN MTNS COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE
IMPACT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL
WITH THE FIRST OF TWO STAND-UP FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING ACRS THE
HIGH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT WILL
LIKELY CHANGE ANY RAIN TO SNOW FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET OR
SO.

ON MONDAY...A SECOND PUSH OF EVEN COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN WITH THE
MAIN TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH ACRS THE
NERN PLAINS OF COLORADO EARLY IN THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB MUCH ABOVE MID-MORNING READINGS. ALSO SEE PRECIP CHANCES
RISING WITH WEAK TO MODERATE QG ASCENT AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
LAPSE RATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...COULD SEE ANTICYCLONIC UPSLOPE
FLOW STRENGTHENING ALONG THE SRN FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND PALMER
DIVIDE GIVING THIS AREA A SECOND SHOT AT MEASURABLE PRECIP...
ALBEIT LIGHT. AT HIGH ELEVATIONS...PRECIP WILL BE SNOW ABOVE
8500-9000FT WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND BELOW THAT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TROUGH MOVES EAST BUT THE REGION
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. STILL SEE A
GRADUAL WARM UP DURING THIS PERIOD WITH JUST A LIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE NRN MTNS BY WEDNESDAY.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
600 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  PTCLDY    42  36  79 N10       30.21R                  
A. F. ACADEMY  CLEAR     36  31  82 N10       30.21S                  
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         CLEAR     41  32  69 NW8       30.23S                  
FORT CARSON    CLEAR     41  35  80 N8        30.19R                  
LIMON          PTCLDY    39  38  96 N6        30.16F                  
MONUMENT HILL  PTCLDY    37  30  75 SW6       30.21S                  
TRINIDAD       CLEAR     46  35  65 W15       30.19R                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 600am MDT, Thursday October 23, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 43 degrees west, near 45 degrees central, and near 44 degrees east. Current sky conditions are clear west, mostly cloudy central, and clear east. In the west, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 37 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 70%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 89%, and the dew point is near 41 degrees. Winds are from the southeast at 3 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 8 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 3 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 47 degrees at LA JUNTA. The lowest temperature is 27 degrees at ALAMOSA.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
644 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY  AN UPPER LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS. 

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
258 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014
TODAY
SUNNY. HIGHS 54 TO 66. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38 TO 47. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
FRIDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS 61 TO 73. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 36 TO 45. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
SUNNY. HIGHS 60 TO 72. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 36 TO 44.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 54 TO 64.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 32 TO 39.
MONDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS 40 TO 50.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 20 TO 28.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 40 TO 54. LOWS 24 TO 31.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                OCT 28-NOV 1 OCT 30-NOV 5   NOV        NOV-JAN                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Below       Normal     Normal      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
/////////////////////////
OCTOBER 23RD
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1761...
A hurricane struck southeastern New England. It was the most violent in
thirty years. Thousands of trees blocked roads in Massachsuetts and Rhode
Island. (David Ludlum)
...1843...
"Indian Summer" was routed by cold and snow that brought sleighing from the
Poconos to Vermont. A foot of snow blanketed Haverhill NH and Newberry VT,
and 18 to 24 inches were reported in some of the higher elevations. Snow
stayed on the ground until the next spring. (22nd-23rd) (Sandra and TI
Richard Sanders - 1987) (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures
for the date. It marked the sixth record low of the month for Greer SC and
Columbia SC, and the ninth of the month for Montgomery AL. Showers and
thunderstorms deluged Corpus Christi TX with five inches of rain.
Winnemucca NV reported their first measurable rain in ninety-two days,
while Yakima WA reported a record 96 days in a row without measurable
rainfall. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
Denver CO reported their first freeze of the autumn, and Chicago IL
reported their first snow. In Texas, afternoon highs of 93 degrees at
Austin and San Antonio were records for the date. (The National Weather
Summary)
...1989...
A storm moving out of the Gulf of Alaska brought rain and high winds to the
Central Pacific Coast Region. High winds in Nevada gusted to 67 mph at
Reno, and thunderstorms around Redding CA produced wind gusts to 66 mph.
Locally heavy rains in the San Francisco area caused numerous mudslides,
adding insult to injury for earthquake victims. (The National Weather
Summary) (Storm Data)
 
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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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