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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
352 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DVLP OVER THE SWRN US TODAY THROUGH 
TONIGHT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SWLY.  ABUNDANT 
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE 
THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LIMITED CAPE THIS AFTN 
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SO WILL MENTION 
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.  OVER NERN CO IT SHOULD BE DRY EXCEPT 
FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER 
DIVIDE.  AS FOR HIGHS 850-700 MB TEMPS RISE FM 6-8 DEGREES C SO AFTN 
HIGHS OVER NERN CO SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

GOOD OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS. THEY
CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND CLOSED 500MB LOW PASSING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE CLOSED LOW AT THE CENTER OF
THIS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE SERN
CALIFORNIA/SRN NEVADA/WRN ARIZONA AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SPREADING INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER COLORADO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A WEAK
COLD FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH INTO NERN COLORADO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...EVENTUALLY UP AGAINST THE FOOTHILLS NEAR DENVER BY LATE
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...SHOULD SEE
NORTHEASTERLY SFC-700MB WINDS OF 10-25KT COVERING MUCH OF THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY. BY MID-AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW AN
ELONGATED SFC LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT
ACROSS...EASTERN DOUGLAS...ELBERT...NORTHERN LINCOLN AND KIT
CARSON COUNTIES. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGING ALONG THIS
BNDRY...TOGETHER WITH MODEST CROSS BNDRY SHEAR...SFC BASED CAPES
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE AND LAYER PW VALUES IN THE 0.65 TO 0.75
INCH RANGE...SHOULD BE ABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS...
A FEW OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS SOME
SMALL HAIL. NAM AND GFS INDICATE A BULLS EYE OF 0.5 TO 0.9 INCH
RAINFALL OVER SRN DOUGLAS AND SWRN ELBERT COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS HINTED AT THIS HAPPENING. ELSEWHERE ON
THE PLAINS RAINFALL FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/T- STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE STEADY
INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS THE CWA ON SATURDAY
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES APXMTLY 10-12 DEGS F LOWER THAN THOSE ON
FRIDAY.
 
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK GOOD FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY...PARTICULARLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH PERIODS
OF DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD MANAGE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SNOW
LEVEL SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING THE DAY WITH THIS MILD
FLOW...GENERALLY ABOVE 10K FEET. AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
 
ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH PASSING OVER COLORADO AND NEW 
MEXICO...AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FILLING CLOSED LOW TRACKING 
NEWRD ACROSS THE SERN CORNER OF COLORADO. AS THE TROUGH AND UPPER 
LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY...COULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY 
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SEE LESS OF A CHANCE OF T-STORMS ON
SUNDAY EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE. BY LATE IN THE DAY
LARGE SCALE ASCENT TURNS TO SUBSIDENCE AS THE TROUGH EXITS THE
AREA AND THE MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY. MOST OF THIS
PRECIP...ALBEIT LIGHT...SHOULD END BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO BE A FEW DEGS F WARMER THAN THOSE
ON SATURDAY.

MONDAY LOOKS DRIER ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED 
WITH PASSAGE OF ANOTHER WEAK MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS SIMILAR 
TO THOSE THE DAY BEFORE. ON TUESDAY...SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
SURGE UPWARDS TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S A GOOD BET ON THE PLAINS WITH A RELATIVELY STIFF
SOUTHERLY WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT SHOULD SEE THE
WILDLAND FIRE DANGER RISE ON THE PLAINS. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THIS EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE BEGINNING TO GREEN UP. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY T-STORMS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATE IN
THE DAY MAY FURTHER COMPOUND THIS FIRE DANGER. FOR WEDNESDAY...WARM...
DRY AND BREEZY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING COLORADO
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MAY FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY ON THURSDAY.

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
700 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  MOCLDY    37  30  75 NE8       30.08R                  
A. F. ACADEMY  CLEAR     38  31  77 S2        30.07R                  
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         CLEAR     40  28  63 NW8       30.09S                  
FORT CARSON    CLEAR     36  33  86 VRB3      30.05F                  
LIMON          CLEAR     27  26  96 CALM      30.05F                  
MONUMENT HILL  CLEAR     43  25  49 SW9       30.07S                  
TRINIDAD       CLEAR     42  31  64 SW14      30.10R                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 700am MDT, Friday April 18, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 48 degrees west, near 47 degrees central, and near 41 degrees east. Current sky conditions are partly cloudy west, mostly cloudy central, and clear east. In the west, relative humidity is near 40%, and the dew point is near 25 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 45%, and the dew point is near 27 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 79%, and the dew point is near 35 degrees. Winds are from the east at 16 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the south at 13 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the southwest at 8 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 48 degrees at GRAND JUNCTION. The lowest temperature is 25 degrees at LEADVILLE.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
646 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP 
ARE  LIGHTNING  LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO 50MPH  AND PEA SIZED 
HAIL.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM STRONGER STORMS WILL BE HAIL UP TO 1/2 INCH IN
DIAMETER  AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ALL STORMS WILL PRODUCE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON THE WALDO
BURN SCAR COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. 

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
749 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014
REST OF TODAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 52 TO 65. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 10 PERCENT.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 35 TO 43. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
SATURDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING
THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 46 TO 58. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 32 TO 39. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
SUNDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 48 TO 59. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 32 TO 41.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 50 TO 63. LOWS 32 TO 43.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 55 TO 69. LOWS 35 TO 44.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WINDY. MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 49 TO 63. LOWS 26 TO 35.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 41 TO 54.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   APR 23-27 APR 25-MAY 1   APR        APR-JUN                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal        Above      Above      Above                      
 Precipitation:     Normal        Below     Normal     Normal                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
APRIL 18TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1880...
More than two dozen tornadoes were reported from Kansas and Arkansas to
Wisconsin and Michigan. More than 100 persons were killed, including 65
persons at Marshfield MO. (David Ludlum)
...1906...
A severe earthquake shook San Francisco, and unusual easterly winds spread
fires destroying the city. (David Ludlum)
...1944...
California experienced its worst hailstorm of record. Damage mounted to two
million dollars as two consecutive storms devastated the Sacramento Valley
destroying the fruit crop. (The Weather Channel)
...1957...
A dust devil near Dracut MA lifted a small child three feet into the air,
and rolled two other children on the ground. Fortunately none of the three
were hurt. The dust devil was accompanied by a loud whistling sound as it
moved westward. (The Weather Channel)
...1970...
Rapid City SD received a record 22 inches of snow in 24 hours. (17th-18th)
(The Weather Channel)
 
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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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