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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
223 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND STABLE OVERNIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER COLORADO. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DENVER AREA BY 18Z WITH
WEAK NELY WINDS IN THE AFTN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE THEIR RETURN
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE URBAN
CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTN. 

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM NEW MEXICO ACROSS WESTERN 
COLORADO AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE 
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY 
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MOIST AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT FRIDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER 
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 70S FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO. STILL SOME 
QUESTION IF WE WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT 
LOOKS TOO DRY...BUT IF LOW CLOUDS FORM WOULD EXPECT THEM TO KEEP 
HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER. MAY SEE SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
CONVECTION SATURDAY. THE PLAINS MAY BE CAPPED BY THE COOLER AIRMASS 
SO CHANCES WILL BE LOW. THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE ELEVATED 
TERRAIN...INCLUDING THE PALMER DIVIDE.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER EASTERN COLORADO BY SUNDAY AS 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NEVADA. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS 
EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD 
COVER AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB TO AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MORE THAN TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  
CAPES WILL BE UP TO 1000 J/KG. SO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY 
RAIN. 

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEVADA 
INTO WYOMING MONDAY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. A SHORT 
WAVE OR TWO MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW AND ACROSS COLORADO. AIRMASS 
WILL DRY SLIGHTLY EACH DAY...BUT REMAIN MOISTURE FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. EXPECT A ROUND OF SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. 

ON WEDNESDAY...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER COLORADO 
AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST 
THURSDAY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THIS PATTERN

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
500 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  MOSUNNY   84  30  14 S14G22    30.05S                  
A. F. ACADEMY  SUNNY     81  32  16 S17G26    30.06S                  
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         SUNNY     80  30  16 S14G20    30.12S                  
FORT CARSON    SUNNY     84  34  16 SE16      30.02S                  
LIMON          SUNNY     85  31  14 S16       29.99S                  
MONUMENT HILL  SUNNY     79  30  17 S18       30.10S                  
TRINIDAD       SUNNY     82  39  21 SE17G25   30.03S                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 500pm MDT, Thursday September 18, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 86 degrees west, near 88 degrees central, and near 89 degrees east. Current sky conditions are sunny west, mostly sunny central, and sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 24%, and the dew point is near 46 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 15%, and the dew point is near 36 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 26%, and the dew point is near 50 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the west at 10 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southeast at 14 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the south at 18 mph with gusts at 25 mph east, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 90 degrees at PUEBLO, LA JUNTA, GREELEY ARPT, BURLINGTON, and BROOMFIELD. The lowest temperature is 54 degrees at MONARCH PASS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1101 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

 DAY ONE  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  OVERNIGHT  THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL 
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOME AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COLORADO 
BORDER  MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS  COSTILLA AND 
LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES.  THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE 
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO FROM FRIDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE HAZARDOUS 
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION  SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SMALL HAIL AND 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. 

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
542 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014
TONIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 45 TO 54. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY
PARTLY SUNNY. A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 67 TO 79. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 44 TO 52. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
SATURDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 59 TO 71. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 42 TO 50. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 55 TO 67. LOWS 43 TO 50.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 40 TO 48.
TUESDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 57 TO 68.
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 40 TO 47.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 58 TO 69. LOWS 41 TO 49.
THURSDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 58 TO 69.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                   SEP 24-28 SEP 26-OCT 2   OCT        OCT-DEC                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Below     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Above       Normal      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
SEPTEMBER 18TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1926...
The great "Miami Hurricane" produced winds reaching 138 mph which drove
ocean waters into the Biscayne Bay drowning 135 persons. The eye of the
hurricane passed over Miami, at which time the barometric pressure reached
27.61 inches. Tides up to twelve feet high accompanied the hurricane, which
claimed a total of 372 lives. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Early morning thunderstorms in northern Texas produced wind gusts to 65 mph
at Sulphur Springs, and 2.50 inches of rain in one hour at Commerce, which
caused widespread street flooding. Bonham TX received 4.50 inches of rain
which also resulted in widespread street flooding as Pig Branch overflowed
its banks. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1988...
A strong cold front produced severe thunderstorms in the north central U.S.
High winds behind the cold front gusted to 92 mph at Fort Collins CO, and
up to a foot of snow blanketed the mountains of Montana, with seven inches
reported at Great Falls. High winds in Colorado caused three million
dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)
...1989...
Hurricane Hugo hit Puerto Rico, producing wind gusts to 92 mph at San Juan,
and wind gusts to 120 mph at Roosevelt Roads. Hugo produced a storm surge
of four to six feet, and northeastern sections of the island were deluged
with more than ten inches of rain. Hugo claimed the lives of a dozen
persons in Puerto Rico, and caused a bilion dollars damage, including 100
million dollars damage to crops. Thunderstorms representing what remained
of Hurricane Octave continued to bring heavy rain to the valleys of
northern California. Heavier 24 hour rainfall totals included 3.15 inches
at Redding, and 2.66 inches at Red Bluff. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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