National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 332 PM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 331 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016 An upper low moving into southwestern Colorado continues to provide good lift over the forecast area as moisture continues to stream in on northeasterly low level flow. A surface low over southeastern Colorado will begin to turn surface flow northerly, converging moisture in the easterly flow. This is already providing good focus for the current line of storms north to south east of the urban corridor. CAPE values around 2000 J/kg expected over Elbert, Lincoln and Washington and 0-6km shear values between 40 and 50 kts will keep the threat of severe storms with large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes continuing through early this evening. The other concern may be localized flash flooding with such a moist environment. Upslope north-northeasterly flow will be increasing tonight which will focus more precipitation over the Palmer Divide area. Also, convergence out over the eastern plains will help focus precipitation. As the upper low moves closer, storm motions will become slower, increasing the flooding threat. Showers and thunderstorms should become more stratiform tonight. Some models have 2 to 3.5 inches across these areas through Friday. Over the mountains, snow levels are expected to drop to between 9000 and 10000 feet. Rich moisture and upslope flow will continue to bring accumulating snow above 10000 feet. Winter Weather Advisory will continue for expected snow amounts and travel impacts. Rain and high elevation snow showers will continue Friday morning with a few thunderstorms possible as the upper low moves over eastern Colorado. Continued northerly flow and cloud cover from precipitation will limit much heating tomorrow. Max temperatures are expected to stay in the 50s to low 60s. Showers should be decreasing over the foothills and urban corridor in the afternoon as flow starts to turn northwesterly to dry out and QG vertical motions will turn downward. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 331 PM MDT Thu May 26 2016 Upper level low pressure system will move into the Central Plains Friday night. Weak subsidence and drying will allow lingering showers and storms to decrease during the evening, ending last over the far eastern plains and in the mountains where weak orographics could help some light showers hold into late evening. For the Memorial Day weekend Saturday through Monday, we should see fairly typical weather for this time of year as generally light west/southwest flow aloft prevails. That should mean near normal temperatures with highs in the lower to mid 70s over the plains, and 50s/60s in the mountains. Temperatures could turn slightly cooler with a little better chance of rain Tuesday, as long as a cold front arrives as expected. This front appears to be pushed southward by a short wave trough moving across the northern U.S. The slightly cooler weather may be replaced by warmer and drier conditions by Thursday into next weekend if ridge builds in as advertised.National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS... CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS COLO. SPRINGS TSTM 48 37 65 W8 29.91R A. F. ACADEMY LGT RAIN 50 39 66 N20 29.90S SCHRIEVER AFB NOT AVBL ELLICOTT TSTM N/A N/A N/A W10 29.91R FALCON TSTM 44 34 66 N7 29.94S FORT CARSON TSTM 51 41 67 NW16 29.87S LIMON CLOUDY 63 45 51 E10 29.81R MONUMENT HILL TSTM 45 36 70 SE7 29.97F TRINIDAD FAIR 65 37 35 NW30G37 29.77F
1105 AM MDT THU MAY 26 2016 DAY ONE TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LARGE HAIL DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM NORTH OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD TO SPRINGFIELD WITH THE HIGHEST RISK ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION. AN INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE WALDO BURN SCAR WILL BE WITH STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUOUS RAINFALL OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO STEADY RISES ALONG THE FOUNTAIN CREEK. THOSE LIVING IN AND NEAR THE WALDO BURN SCAR SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SNOW WILL FALL GENERALLY ABOVE 11000 FEET TODAY, DROPPING DOWN TO 9000 FEET TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PIKES PEAK WITH MODERATE AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE WET MOUNTAINS THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN ADDITIONAL FOUR TO SIX INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER PIKES PEAK AND THE OTHER MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 10000 FEET COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DAILY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL. STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR LATER IN THE WEEK BUT THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9000 FEET.
COLORADO --------------------------------------------- 6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY JUN 1-JUN 5 JUN 3-JUN 9 JUN JUN-AUG ----------- ----------- -------- --------- Temperature: Below Normal Below Above Precipitation: Above Above Above Above .... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
///////////////////////// MAY 26TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS ...1771... A famous Virginia flood occurred as heavy rains in the mountains brought all rivers in the state to record high levels. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) ...1894... A tornado (unofficially F2) moved along a five mile long path east of Jeffersonville IN (Clark County). The Louisville weather office's log book simply read, Partly cloudy, and threatening during the greater portion of the day. Shower, 11.56am12.04 pm; amount, .05. While rain was falling, a few indistinct, distant peals of thunder were heard. (NWS Louisville) ...1917... A tornado touched down near Louisiana MO about noon and remained on the ground for a distance of 293 miles, finally lifting seven hours and twenty minutes later in eastern Jennings County IN. The twister cut a swath of destruction two and a half miles wide through Mattoon IL. There were 101 persons killed in the tornado, including 53 at Mattoon, and 38 at Charleston IL. Damage from the storm totalled 2.5 million dollars. (David Ludlum) ...1965... An F2 tornado was spotted in Simpson County. (NWS Louisville) ...1967... A slow moving nor-easter battered New England with high winds, heavy rain, and record late season snow on this day. Winds 70 to 90 mph in gusts occurred along the coast. Over 7 inches of rain fell at Nantucket, Massachusetts with 6.57 inches falling in 24 hours to set a new 24 hour rainfall record. 24.9 inches of snow fell at Mount Washington, New Hampshire to set a new May snowfall record. (NWS Louisville) ...1968... An F2 tornado struck Smiths Grove (Warren County). A barn was destroyed and another damaged. (NWS Louisville) ...1989... A tornado produced F1 damage along a four mile long path through Allen County, resulting in a quarter million dollars in damage. An F1 tornado was on the ground for 6 miles in Simpson County. (NWS Louisville) ...1996... Lightning struck and damaged two homes in Louisville. (NWS Louisville)