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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER UTAH WILL BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST AS A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND LEE OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME...ALLOWING READINGS IN THE 90S TO BE EASILY REACHED OVER THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION FIRING OVER WYOMING AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY DOWN
INTO THE 40S...MAKING STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING OUT OF THE STORMS THE MAIN THREATS. A COOL FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING...LIKELY
DISGUISED BY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE MOISTURE AND
COOL TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT...HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL BRING
WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING BOTH A THETA E RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AS WELL
AS SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PAST MIDNIGHT...WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

TOMORROW...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY SO THAT THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LESS WIND AND
MORE RAIN. 

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING DISTURBANCES INTO COLORADO ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FLOW WILL CHANGE MORE NORTHEASTERLY
BEHIND THE FIRST OF TWO FRONTAL PUSHES EMBEDDED IN NW FLOW. FOR
THURSDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NE WITH DECENT
INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE
IS DECENT CAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY 18Z WITH BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDE 40-45 NEAR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTH TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THERE WILL BE A STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH THURSDAY BUT THE
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE RIGHT FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH PWS OF
0.90-1.00 MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL.

FRIDAY WILL SEE DRYING OUT OVER THE PLAINS AS THE STORM DYNAMICS
SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. 

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS
MORE EASTERLY BRINGING DRYER AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO NE COLORADO.
THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SO PEOPLE WILL NEED TO STAY VIGILANT IF
HIKING FOR A CONTINUED LIGHTNING THREAT. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING HIGHS HOVERING IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S BY SUNDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A TRANSITION INTO THE
SEASONAL MONSOON WITH THE LOW CENTERED OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS
MEANS INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
600 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  MOSUNNY   86  51  29 S8        30.14F                  
A. F. ACADEMY  MOSUNNY   84  49  28 S7        30.16S                  
ELLICOTT       MOSUNNY    1 N/A N/A CALM      30.12F                  
FALCON         MOSUNNY   80  47  30 S7        30.21S                  
FORT CARSON    MOSUNNY   84  51  32 W2        30.10F                  
LIMON          SUNNY     86  54  33 S7        30.07F                  
MONUMENT HILL  MOSUNNY   77  50  38 N6        30.23R                  
TRINIDAD       SUNNY     90  47  22 VRB5      30.09F                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 600pm MDT, Tuesday June 30, 2015
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 89 degrees west, near 84 degrees central, and near 97 degrees east. Current sky conditions are mostly sunny west, light rain central, and sunny east. In the west, relative humidity is near 20%, and the dew point is near 43 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 26%, and the dew point is near 46 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 16%, and the dew point is near 44 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and danger east. Conditions are hazy west. Winds are from the north at 33 mph with gusts at 51 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the northwest at 22 mph with gusts at 30 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds and light rain. Winds are calm east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 98 degrees at PUEBLO. The lowest temperature is 64 degrees at WILKERSON PASS.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1121 AM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

 DAY ONE  THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE 
MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS  AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG 
THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING THE EVENING. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM
THREATS WILL BE HAZARDOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH  HOWEVER SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY  THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS  PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS  I-25
CORRIDOR  AND EASTERN PLAINS. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON
THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL
ONE INCH OR LARGER IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS OVER 60 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND  MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING  WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH  SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
610 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015
REST OF TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 53 TO 62. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 20 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 67 TO 78. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS 51 TO 58. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 65 TO 75. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 48 TO 55. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 65 TO 75.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 50 TO 59. HIGHS 70 TO 82.
MONDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 67 TO 77.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 51 TO 57.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 67 TO 78.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                JUL 6-JUL 10 JUL 8-JUL 14   JUL        JUL-SEP                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:     Normal        Below      Below      Below                      
 Precipitation:      Above        Above      Above      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
////////////////////////
JUNE 30TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1886...
The second destructive hurricane in nine days hit the
Apalachicola-Tallahassee area. (David Ludlum)
...1942...
The temperature at Portland OR hit 102 degrees, an all-time record for that
location. (The Weather Channel)
...1971...
Lightning killed a man instantly as he worked in a field near east Bernstadt in 
Laurel county, Kentucky. Twenty two years later on this date in 1993 lightning also 
killed a gentleman who was tending to his cattle in Pulaski county. (NWS)
...1972...
The entire state of Pennsylvania was declared a disaster area as a result
of the catastrophic flooding caused by Hurricane Agnes, which claimed 48
lives, and caused 2.1 billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
Hot weather prevailed in the Pacific Northwest, with readings above 100
degrees reported as far north as southern British Columbia. Yakima WA
reported a record high of 100 degrees, while temperatures near the
Washington coast hovered near 60 degrees all day. Thunderstorms prevailed
from southwest Texas to New England. Thunderstorm winds gusting to 100 mph
at Gettysburg PA killed one person. High winds and large hail caused more
than five million dollars damage to property and crops in Lancaster County
PA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Thunderstorms in eastern Kansas drenched Worden with 12.21 inches of rain,
and a wall of water two to four feet deep swept through Lone Star KS
flooding every home in the town. Up to ten inches of rain was reported
southeast of Callaway NE. Thunderstorm winds gusted to 75 mph at Winfield
KS. Seventeen cities in the north central and northeastern U.S. reported
record low temperatures for the date, including Duluth MN with a reading of
36 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
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