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Baca County, CO Weather and Climate Synopsis
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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
353 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER COLORADO TODAY WITH A DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS. SHOULD BE A CLOUDLESS DAYTIME WITH
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE IS
AGAIN 80 DEGREES AT DENVER AND READINGS TODAY WILL BE RIGHT
AROUND THAT 80 DEGREE MARK. 

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE TODAY WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE RIDGE EAST OF COLORADO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS
CROSS BARRIER FLOW INCREASING TO 40KT AND MOUNTAIN TOP STABILITY
DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCAL GUSTS IN THE
50-60 MPH IN WIND PRONE AREAS LATER TONIGHT. MAIN CHANGE TO
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE WINDS A LITTLE LATER TONIGHT. SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATER TNT IN THE MOUNTAINS
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS UNTIL SUNDAY DAYTIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

SUNDAY MORNING WILL START OUT QUITE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS AND URBAN CORRIDOR. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
ABOUT 50 KTS OF CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW AROUND 650 MB WITH A MINIMUM
OF 15 KT AROUND 450 MB. NOT THE BEST MOUNTAIN WAVE/DOWNSLOPING
WIND PATTERN BUT STILL QUITE GOOD. WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 TO
50 MPH IN THE UPPER FOOTHILLS IN THE NORMAL WINDY SPOTS WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PUSHING INTO THE STATE
DURING THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE CO/KS STATE
LINE. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHED IN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AND SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN A COOLER DAY COMPARED
TO TODAY. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WILL SEE THIS EFFECT FIRST AND WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER. THIS WILL HELP HUMIDITY
NOT BOTTOM OUT TOO MUCH WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...SO RIGHT NOW NO
HIGHLIGHTS ARE NEEDED AS HUMIDITY READINGS LOOK TO STAY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY PRETTY GUSTY AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BEGINS NEARING. MOISTURE...WHICH SEEMS
MEAGER WITH BETTER AMOUNTS FOUND FURTHER NORTH...IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND
10 THOUSAND FEET OR HIGHER. A BETTER PUSH LOOKS TO ARRIVE IN THE
EVENING WHERE SNOW LEVELS MAY DROP TO NEAR 8000 FEET...EXCEPT OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THEY MAY BE CLOSER TO 6000. 

THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS AS
THIS OCCURS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
MORNING WHILE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR. LOOKING AT CROSS
SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS...AIRMASS SEEMS QUITE DRY. LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY...BUT KEPT A CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AND
EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND IT ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR OR
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETS UP THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW LATE
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY CAUSE SLIGHT COOLING BEFORE ADDITIONAL WARMTH
MOVES IN FRIDAY

National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary
Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]

BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress

Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
500 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS  CLEAR     54  18  24 N10       30.25F                  
A. F. ACADEMY  CLEAR     49  18  29 NE3       30.27S                  
ELLICOTT       NOT AVBL                                               
FALCON         CLEAR     53  12  19 NW5       30.29F                  
FORT CARSON    CLEAR     49  23  35 N5        30.22S                  
LIMON          CLEAR     48  30  49 NW12      30.20F                  
MONUMENT HILL  CLEAR     45  18  33 SW9       30.29F                  
TRINIDAD       PTCLDY    50  27  40 W14       30.24S                  
Current Temperatures, Dewpoint, RH, Wind, Regional Obs, Surface 4-Panel

Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 500am MDT, Saturday October 25, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 45 degrees west, near 53 degrees central, and near 42 degrees east. Current sky conditions are clear west, clear central, and partly cloudy east. In the west, relative humidity is near 60%, and the dew point is near 32 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 29%, and the dew point is near 22 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 82%, and the dew point is near 37 degrees. Winds are calm west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the southwest at 7 mph central, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the west at 6 mph east, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 57 degrees at BROOMFIELD. The lowest temperature is 25 degrees at GUNNISON and ALAMOSA.


US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
502 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

 DAY ONE  TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN  SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS  MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION IN THE COMING
DAYS. ON SUNDAY  FIRE DANGER WILL ESCALATE DUE TO DRY FUELS  LOW
HUMIDITIES AND INCREASING WINDS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY  SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE
8500 FEET ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND PIKES PEAK. TUESDAY
MORNING  AND POSSIBLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING  A FROST OR FREEZE
MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS.

 SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NWS Severe Weather Map , Convective Outlook

7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
514 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014
TODAY
SUNNY. HIGHS 61 TO 73. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH BECOMING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 38 TO 48. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
SUNDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 56 TO 67. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS 33 TO 42. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MONDAY
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS 40 TO 52. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS 22 TO 27.
TUESDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 42 TO 50.
TUESDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 27 TO 33.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS 50 TO 58. LOWS 30 TO 36.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS 49 TO 56. LOWS 32 TO 37.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 53 TO 61.
12-48 Hr Surface Forecast Maps, TWC 4-Panel Surface Forecast, Fire Danger, Day 1 Precip, Day 2 Precip, Days 1-5 Precip, Severe Weather Pot.-Day 1, Day 2

Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
                             COLORADO                                                                     
                 ---------------------------------
                 6 TO 10 DAY  8 TO 14 DAY   30 DAY    90 DAY 
                OCT 30-NOV 3  NOV 1-NOV 7   NOV        NOV-JAN                      
                 -----------  -----------  --------  ---------
   Temperature:      Above        Above      Above     Normal                      
 Precipitation:      Below        Below     Normal      Above                      

....  Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook

Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
/////////////////////////////
OCTOBER 25TH
HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
...1921...
A hurricane with 100 mph winds hit Tampa FL causing several million dollars
damage. (David Ludlum)
...1977...
Dutch Harbor in Alaska reported a barometric pressure reading of 27.31
inches (925 millibars) to establish an all-time record for the state. (The
Weather Channel)
...1981...
A northbound tornado caused two million dollars damage to Bountstown FL in
less than five minutes. Fortunately no deaths occurred along its six mile
path, which was 30 to 100 yards in width. Radar at Apalachicola had no
indication of a tornado or severe weather. (The Weather Channel)
...1987...
A storm system moving across the Saint Lawrence Valley produced 40 to 50
mph winds east of Lake Ontario. High winds downed some trees around
Watertown NY, and produced waves seven feet high between Henderson Harbor
and Alexandria Bay. Mason City IA and Waterloo IA tied for honors as cold
spot in the nation with record lows for the date of 19 degrees. Severe
thunderstorms in Oklahoma and northern Texas produced golf ball size hail
and wind gusts to 65 mph. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...1988...
Severe thunderstorms erupted over northeastern Texas during the late
evening producing softball size hail at Newcastle and Jonesboro. Low
pressure over James Bay in Canada continued to produced showers and gale
force winds in the Great Lakes Region. (The National Weather Summary)
(Storm Data)
...1989...
Low pressure over Nevada produced high winds in the southwestern U.S., and
spread heavy snow into Utah. Winds gusted to 63 mph at the Mojave Airport
in southern California. Snowfall totals in Utah ranged up to 12 inches at
Snowbird, with 11 inches at Alta. "Indian Summer" type weather continued in
the central and eastern U.S. Twenty cities in the north central U.S.
reported record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 77 degrees at
Alpena MI and 81 degrees at Saint Cloud MN were the warmest of record for
so late in the season. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)
...IN 1991...
Indian summer held fast across eastern Kentucky. From Oct 24th to Oct 27th 
temperatures soared into the mid 80s each day setting four consecutive daily 
high temperature records at the Jackson Weather Office and two records at the 
London Corbin airport.

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Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky
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