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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
751 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
ISSUED AT 724 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
THIS EVENING WE HAVE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...ALONG THE WYOMING
BORDER IN WELD COUNTY TO THE SSE ACROSS NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY...THEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE. WITH LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT STORMS HAVE MOVED SLOWLY WITH RAINFALL RATES OF AN
INCH IN A HALF HOUR...WITH THE HIGHEST REPORT OVER 3 INCHES IN AN
HOUR NEAR WINDSOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
AS UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTH TOMORROW...WE WILL LIKEY SEE
CONVECTION SLIDE SOUTH...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW EARLY...SECOND
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. BEST IDEA IS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING SOUTH IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME DRYING FROM THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON. ONCE
AGAIN WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
FOR NOW GIVEN THE QUESTIONS...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]
BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress
Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
800 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS CLOUDY 62 59 90 NE13 30.25R THUNDER
A. F. ACADEMY LGT RAIN 61 59 94 N8 30.27R
ELLICOTT TSTM 58 57 97 E21G26 30.23R
FALCON LGT RAIN 57 56 96 NE12 30.30R
FORT CARSON LGT RAIN 61 61 100 E6 30.23R
LIMON LGT RAIN 61 59 93 SE6 30.22R
MONUMENT HILL TSTM 55 54 94 N7 30.31R
TRINIDAD MOCLDY 71 58 63 W10 30.15S
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 800pm MDT, Tuesday July 29, 2014
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 62 degrees west, near 62 degrees central, and near 69 degrees east. Current sky conditions are rain west, heavy rain central, and light rain east. In the west, relative humidity is near 83%, and the dew point is near 57 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 93%, and the dew point is near 60 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 90%, and the dew point is near 66 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the north at 20 mph west, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds and rain. Winds are from the northwest at 10 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to heavy rain. Winds are from the north at 13 mph east, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds and light rain. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 73 degrees at CORTEZ. The lowest temperature is 46 degrees at MONARCH PASS.
US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1209 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
DAY ONE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT TODAY AS AN EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME ACTS IN CONCERT WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING TO GENERATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPING INTO A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PLAINS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS WILL BE THE BURN
SCARS. HOWEVER AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCATIONS IN AND NEAR STEEP TERRAIN WILL ALSO SEE AN
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS AS A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DEVELOPS
AND SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST.
ONE OR TWO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH
IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT WITH ALL
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MANY PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS MOST
AFTERNOONS WITH STORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH
VALLEYS AND NEARBY PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
HIGHEST WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION IF ENOUGH PRECIPITATION
FALLS PORTIONS OF THE ARKANSAS AND PURGATOIRE RIVERS ALONG
WITH THEIR TRIBUTARY CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING
PLEASE REMEMBER THAT AREA BURN SCARS URBAN AREAS STEEP
TERRAIN LOCATIONS AND AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST VULNERABLE TO THE FLASH FLOOD RISK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
829 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
REST OF TONIGHT
PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LOWS 45 TO 52. LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING
THEN THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HIGHS 54 TO 66. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE 42 TO 49. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 56 TO 69. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 45 TO 53. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 60 TO 72.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 45 TO 53.
PARTLY SUNNY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 59 TO 72.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 47 TO 54.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 62 TO 75.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 47 TO 55.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 62 TO 73.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 46 TO 54. HIGHS 63 TO 75.
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
AUG 4-AUG 8 AUG 6-AUG 12 AUG AUG-OCT
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Below Below Normal Below
Precipitation: Above Above Above Above
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
JULY 29TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
The Louisville weather office business log book mentioned that the annual
rent for the office was $200. There was some consideration given to
moving the office to a different location, the cost to move the weather
office would be $38.
The temperature at Prineville OR soared to 119 degrees to establish a state
record, which was tied on the 10th of August at Pendleton. (The Weather
Heavy rain in southwestern Connecticut caused a dam break, and the
resulting flood caused a quarter of a million dollars damage at Bridgeport.
As much as eleven inches of rain fell prior to the flood. (David Ludlum)
Fifty cattle, each weighing 800 pounds, were killed by lightning near Vance
AL. The lightning struck a tree and then spread along the ground killing
the cattle. (The Weather Channel)
Also on this date...
The Louisville weather office moved in to a brand new building (with the FAA)
at Standiford Field.
Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Minnesota to Indiana and
Illinois. A thunderstorm at Janesville WI produced wind gusts to 104 mph
which flipped over two airplanes, and blew another plane 300 feet down the
runway. The northeastern U.S. experienced some relief from the heat. Nine
cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Saint
Johnsbury VT with a reading of 42 degrees. Barnet VT reported a morning low
of 33 degrees, with frost reported on vegetation. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Minnesota
and Wisconsin. Hail three inches in diameter was reported south of Saint
Cloud MN. Hot weather prevailed in the western U.S. Fresno CA reported a
record thirteen straight days of 100 degree heat. (Storm Data) (The
National Weather Summary)
Morning thunderstorms in the Upper Midwest produced more than five inches
of rain west of Virgil SD. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms deluged the
foothills and adjacent plains of Colorado with heavy rain. Rains of six to
seven and a half inches fell in eight hours north of Greeley. Hail and
heavy rain caused several million dollars damage in Weld County. (Storm
Data) (The National Weather Summary)
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky