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A joint service of the UK Ag Weather Center and the National Weather Service.
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
351 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016
Convective cloudiness is developing right now over the plains and
foothills, with a few cells developing over the eastern border.
Models keep the upper ridge centered to the immediate west of the
CWA, with west-northwesterly flow aloft. There is weak downward
synoptic scale motion progged on the QG Omega fields tonight and
Tuesday. Models have easterly low level flow over the plains and
foothills through this evening, with a hint of normal drainage
winds by dawn Tuesday morning. Southeasterlies are progged Tuesday
afternoon. There is pretty decent moisture progged this evening,
with even some low clouds for Tuesday morning at 12Z. Tuesday
looks drier than tonight does. Precipitable water values are
progged from 0.40 inch west to 1.20 east much of tonight. They
dry a tad for Tuesday. The CAPE progs over the plains are up to
3000 J/kg this evening. Tuesday's CAPE numbers a lower. Will go
with 10-40% pops this evening for foothills and plains. On
Tuesday afternoon, will go with 10-30%s for the plains, the
highest over then northeast corner. Will go with 20-40%s in the
mountains and foothills. For temperatures, Tuesday's highs will
be 0-2 C warmer than this afternoon's readings.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Mon Jun 27 2016
Westerly flow aloft continues through the week. Tuesday night into
Wednesday a shortwave moves across the northern plains while
a plume of mid level moisture moves into northern Colorado from
the west. Low level easterly flow will continue to maintain
surface moisture over the plains, while the low level air over the
mountains will be drier. With the richer low level moisture there
is some threat of severe weather on the plains, but temperatures
will be a question mark as this incoming surface air will be a bit
cooler and there could be quite a bit of cloud cover above it.
Model soundings show CAPES ranging from around 1000 j/kg around
Denver up to 3000 j/kg on the eastern plains, but with
temperatures several degrees shy of convective temperature. We may
wind up with isolated strong late day storms without greater
A weak cold front will move in Wednesday night or early Thursday
with cooler and moist air from the north, along with the main
body of higher level moisture from the west. This will be a wetter
environment, but again the cloud cover may help keep a lid on
things for much of the day. This will likely evolve into a more
widespread weak convective environment with CAPEs around 500 j/kg
and precipitable water of around 1.25 inches. There could be a
heavy rain threat if there were some storm organization, but the
main candidate for that would be the front which would more likely
be south of our area. Raised cloud cover and POPs a bit more in
this time frame, though not at all convinced that it will wind up
being a soaker, quite possibly just light showers in most places.
Friday may be a similar environment although also worked over by
then. Severe threat is probably a function of the amount of
There will be a trend back to drier weather with increasing
westerly flow over the weekend. Probably a transition day Saturday
with some low level moisture still around and more sun, then a
drier airmass and possibly gusty west winds and warm/dry
conditions by early next week that could raise some fire weather
concerns depending on how much rain falls in the meantime.
National Ag. Weather Outlook, International Ag. Weather Summary Current Surface Map, Hourly Obs., [2nd Source TWC]
BACA County, Colorado Agriculture, Lawn & Garden Weather Advisory
Ag. Weather Forecast Parameter Maps: Spraying Conditions , Dewpoint Temperatures, Livestock Heat Stress
Regional Hourly Observations For BACA County
700 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
...PIKES PEAK/PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLO. SPRINGS PTSUNNY 78 44 29 W3 30.33R
A. F. ACADEMY FAIR 81 46 28 S8 30.34R
SCHRIEVER AFB NOT AVBL
ELLICOTT FAIR N/A N/A N/A E18 30.33R
FALCON NOT AVBL
FORT CARSON FAIR 73 56 53 W8 30.28S
LIMON FAIR 77 51 40 SE21 30.29R
MONUMENT HILL FAIR 72 54 53 SE13 30.41R
TRINIDAD FAIR 86 41 20 SE8 30.26R
Current Agricultural Weather Conditions in Colorado
Based on observations at 700pm MDT, Monday June 27, 2016
Across Colorado...temperatures are near 95 degrees west, near 85 degrees central, and near 77 degrees east. Current sky conditions are fair west, fair central, and fair east. In the west, relative humidity is near 6%, and the dew point is near 20 degrees. In the central part of the state, relative humidity is near 24%, and the dew point is near 45 degrees. In the east, relative humidity is near 51%, and the dew point is near 58 degrees. The livestock heat stress category is no stress west, no stress central, and no stress east. Winds are from the west at 8 mph west, where conditions are favorable for spraying. Winds are from the northeast at 21 mph central, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Winds are from the east at 23 mph with gusts at 38 mph east, where conditions are not favorable for spraying due to strong winds. Based on current available observations, the highest temperature is 95 degrees at GRAND JUNCTION. The lowest temperature is 59 degrees at WILKERSON PASS.
US Radar, All NWS Radars (In near-real time), Current Livestock Heat Stress Index (LSI), Current Wind Chill Map
Hazardous Weather Outlook For BACA County,CO
1107 AM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
DAY ONE TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED STORMS
SPREADING TO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
OVER KIOWA BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES AND MAYBE OVER PORTIONS
OF EL PASO COUNTY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HAIL AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORMS ROLL OFF THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SMALL HAIL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS EACH DAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WHERE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER AND
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BURN SCARS AND IN URBAN AREAS
SHOULD THESE LOCATIONS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FROM ONE OF THE STRONGER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
7-Day Forecast For BACA County, CO
552 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 47 TO 57. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH UNTIL MIDNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.
PARTLY SUNNY. A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 70 TO 81. SOUTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 49 TO 60. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
MOSTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 69 TO 80. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 48 TO 58. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS 63 TO 74. LOWS 46 TO 56. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.
CLOUDY WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 62 TO 73.
CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS 48 TO 57.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 66 TO 77. LOWS 48 TO 58.
SUNDAY THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS 68 TO 81. LOWS 49 TO 59.
Medium & Long Range Outlook For Colorado
6 TO 10 DAY 8 TO 14 DAY 30 DAY 90 DAY
JUL 3-JUL 7 JUL 5-JUL 11 JUL JUL-SEP
----------- ----------- -------- ---------
Temperature: Above Above Above Above
Precipitation: Normal Normal Normal Normal
.... Medium and long range outlooks provided by NCEP/K. Thomas Priddy
5 Day Rainfall Forecast, 6 to 10 Day , 8 to 14 Day , Text, 30-Day Outook, 90-Day Outook, 120-Day Outlook
Historical Weather And Climate Facts For Today
JUNE 27TH...HISTORIC WEATHER EVENTS
At Newbury, Massachusetts, a violent tornado did extensive damage.
A "wind rush" at Washington, DC damaged the city hall and the Masonic Temple.
There was a rain of fish from the sky at Tiller's Ferry. Hundreds of fish
were swimming between cotton rows after a heavy shower. (David Ludlum)
The temperature at Fort Yukon AK soared to 100 degrees to establish a state
record. (The Weather Channel)
Hurricane Audrey smashed ashore at Cameron LA drowning 390 persons in the
storm tide, and causing 150 million dollars damage in Texas, Louisiana and
Mississippi. Audrey left only a brick courthouse and a cement-block
icehouse standing at Cameron, and when the waters settled in the town of
Crede, only four buildings remained. The powerful winds of Audrey tossed a
fishing boat weighing 78 tons onto an off-shore drilling platform. Winds
along the coast gusted to 105 mph, and oil rigs off the Louisiana coast
reported wind gusts to 180 mph. A storm surge greater than twelve feet
inundated the Louisiana coast as much as 25 miles inland. It was the
deadliest June hurricane of record for the U.S. (David Ludlum) (The Weather
The big heat continued in the southwestern U.S. Lakewood, New Mexico hit a
scorching 119 degrees to set a new all-time state record. Afternoon highs of
116 degrees at Midland, Texas, 114 at Lubbock, Texas and Roswell, new Mexico,
and 113 at El Paso, Texas set new all-time records for those locations. The
mesonet station 4 miles south of Tipton, Oklahoma hit 120 degrees, to tie the
state record high temperature.
Ag Weather Center, Department of Biosystems & Agricultural Engineering, University of Kentucky